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View Diary: Analysis of Modelling the Australian Federal Election (11 comments)

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  •  On those numbers (0+ / 0-)

    McTiernan is worth 6.2% but the Model considers her worth 3-4 points in Canning in 2010 (for complicated reasons), which isn't to say that it is right but given that it's also what  she was worth in Perth in 2013 I'm not inclined to assume it's wrong.

    It's possible she was an even better candidate in 2010 compared with 2013, or is particularly strong in Canning, or is a particularly good match-up with Don Randall. I suspect there was just some natural noise in Canning in 2010 that coincided with a particularly strong challenge.  

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