Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/8 (394 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Considering Obama got 49% there in 2012 (6+ / 0-)

    and 53% in 2008, it's pretty hard to say that there aren't enough Dems there to win. Obviously, under normal circumstances it would be very very difficult to replicate that in a mid-term election against an entrenched Republican, but it would certainly be possible to match Obama's performance in a wave.

    27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

    by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:08:00 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't that prove the point? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, libertyjusticemercy

      They're are plenty of people who vote Dem for president and then GOP loclaly.  I mean it's not just Gerlach, Dent and I think Meehan's districts have had this phenomenon for a while.

      We also need to not look at 2008/2012, as both McCain and Romney were terrible candidates for SEPA GOPers.  If we couldn't overtake them then, I'm not sure what about 2016 says we can.  Republicans always show up to vote, unlike Dems.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:11:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a couple issues with that... (4+ / 0-)

        (1) Although Gerlach was able to withstand the 2006 wave all of the other supposedly entrenched SEPA members lost in 2006 so I'm not sure how you can say that SEPA generally won't vote for Democrats down-ballot in mid-term elections. Obviously, the new map is more favorable for Republicans than the old one but SEPA voters have shown an willingness to vote for DEMS downballot at the same level as the presidential race in the past.

        (2) Romney and McCain are about as good as Republicans can get for contesting SEPA in a Presidential race. Both had a reputations as moderates and Romney's brand was the sort of moderate business--oriented Republicanism that dominates in SEPA. If the Republicans had nominated Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee you'd have a point, but it's pretty hard to say that Romney and McCain were poor fits for the area.

        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:16:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          okiedem

          On point 1, it's a new map.  So 2006 doesn't matter in any way.  Sure we can win but 2014 isn't going to be like 2006.  If you're suggesting it is, then that is our point of disagreement.

          As for Romney/McCain, I agree they were at the top of what the GOP had available for relating to SEPA districts, it's just that they still aren't great fits.  

          But when you look at what Dent and Gerlach have done over their careers, especially Dent, unseating them is a lot harder than the numbers make it seem.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:22:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree that we can't win if it's not a wave (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            rdw72777, MichaelNY

            I'm just making the point that if we do get a full 2006-style wave, districts like these are winnable. That's probably not happening if this crisis is resolved soon without default and doesn't recur, but I certainly think it's on the table if we either default or if Republicans come back to the well and cause another shutdown.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:26:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well that's key (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I find most of those conditions doomsday scenarios for the GOP.  In those situations, yes we could see something phenomenal that historical numbers just can't predict.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Oct 08, 2013 at 08:39:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  My numbers have Bob Casey winning the 6th (3+ / 0-)

        by 1% and Kathleen Kane winning it by 3%. Both of them likely won the 7th, 8th, and 15th by slightly wider margins. I think that Gerlach is very difficult to defeat, but in an open seat situation and especially one with a favorable national environment, Democrats have a good shot so long as we don't nominate a Manan Trivedi type candidate again (not that he was all that bad, but we could definitely do better).

        Also we essentially forfeited the 6th in 2008 by running an underfunded low tier candidate who still came within 2% of winning... We didn't target the 15th either and I believe that if we had run the same candidates in those districts in 2008 that we did in 2010 we would have won the 6th at the very least if not the 15th as well.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site