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View Diary: India is about to have a catastrophic humanitarian disaster -- 165 MPH cyclone expected at landfall. (118 comments)

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  •  Or it could be worse. (0+ / 0-)

    The cone only represents a statistical 2/3rds probability that the storm will be inside it at the time in question.  Meaning that there's 1/6 chance that the landfall will be outside the cone in the direction of Kolkata and Bangladesh, where the population density is dramatically higher and where in the past 50 years two storms have each killed hundreds of thousands.

    Yes, that'd be a worst case.  No, it's not likely.  But it should be pointed out that it is a possibility.

    Já þýðir já. Nei þýðir nei. Hvað er svona erfitt við það?

    by Rei on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 06:40:24 AM PDT

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    •  it's passing south of its forecast points (0+ / 0-)

      kolkata is in the clear.

      Dawkins is to atheism as Rand is to personal responsibility- mperiousRex.

      by terrypinder on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 09:44:51 AM PDT

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      •  If so, Kolkata will be hit by the strong side of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PrahaPartizan

        storm, the NE quadrant (it is still in the Northern Hemisphere, with counter-clockwise rotation). This might be worse than a direct hit.

        We’re Ready, Wendy’s Ready! WTF Are We Waiting For? Bring ‘em on! The revolution has begun! Come and take it!

        by Bluefin on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 10:35:56 AM PDT

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        •  no, not correct. look at the map (0+ / 0-)

          Kolkata is far up to the north near the head of the bay. Phailin is a large storm, but not that large. The distance between the projected landfall area and Kolkata is over 500 miles.

          Dawkins is to atheism as Rand is to personal responsibility- mperiousRex.

          by terrypinder on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 11:36:26 AM PDT

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          •  You're correct, couldn't make the map on this (0+ / 0-)

            page out, even zooming, had to stare and compare with a bunch of Wiki pages; plus they've changed a bunch of names around  :] .
            The map above shows a text box with a forecast CPA (Closest Point of Approach) of about 301km, 187 miles, to Kolkata (Calcutta); still close by for a storm like this. If it pulls a little right it will be worse.

            Looks like it passed over the northern Andaman Islands earlier, they can't catch a break there.

            We’re Ready, Wendy’s Ready! WTF Are We Waiting For? Bring ‘em on! The revolution has begun! Come and take it!

            by Bluefin on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 12:48:32 PM PDT

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