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View Diary: MoveOn releases 12 more polls of House Republicans, showing half tied or trailing generic opponents (97 comments)

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  •  I like those Gerlach numbers. Perhaps a Hotel Cal. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, MrLiberal, TheUnknown285

    line applied to Pa. 6: They stab it with their steely knives but they just can't kill the beast."

    And any chance NJ-3 (Jon Runyan) is vulnerable?

    •  I'm almost surprised. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, TofG, Empower Ink, slothlax

      Gerlach is the strongest incumbent in the most conservative of the 3 suburban Philly districts, and he still trails generic Democrat. I'm curious to see what Dent's and Pitts' numbers are in PA-15 and PA-16. Barletta's district is too right-wing, but Pitts might be in reach since he has never been popular at home. Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 01:21:08 PM PDT

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    •  Recc'ed for the Hotel California line (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TofG, MichaelNY, slothlax, NM Ward Chair

      I'm afraid it's going to be tough to beat Runyan - his district saw the big Democratic stronghold in it (Cherry Hill) removed in redistricting. He beat the widow of the man he ousted in 2010 (John Adler) by 8 last year, but the district has few Democratic officials that could run a well-funded challenge.
      Remember that this district's entirely in the Philadelphia ad market, so it's much more expensive to run here than, say, Duluth (no offense to Minnesotan Kossacks). That's why the "well funded" part matters - the DCCC would definitely have to go to bat for the nominee for them to have a shot.

      That said, the nominee (whoever that may be) will benefit from Cory Booker (presumably) heading the ticket next November as an incumbent. As such Runyan, along with Scott Garrett (49% Obama) and Leonard Lance (47%) could be vulnerable to a strong, well-funded Democratic challenger - the political "wind" would be blowing less strongly against a Democrat than normal there.

      "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

      by MrLiberal on Fri Oct 11, 2013 at 02:04:26 PM PDT

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