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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/15 (339 comments)

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  •  need PVI guidance on Florida (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, HoosierD42

    I'm doing a weird gerrymander for Florida. South of the Gainesville area, does anyone have guidance for what the PVI should be for a Lean D district? A likely D? Trying to do a 18-9 Dem map but I don't want people to think it'll blow up in our faces

    •  Depends on the area and how white it is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, HoosierD42

      In the Tampa Bay area, D+5 is pretty damn safe while if you were to drop Alan Grayson's district down that low it might potentially be vulnerable in midterms. But from Gainesville up to Jacksonville and especially the Big Bend area (Tallahassee etc) that's way overkill and pretty much anything Obama won is safe. If you're drawing the South Florida Hispanic districts, you have to keep in mind the huge swing towards us between 2008 and 2012 and that anything Obama won by like 5% or more is probably safe with the exception of Ros-Lehtinen's seat which might need to be like Obama +10 in 08. In the Palm Beach/Broward County area though, especially in the whiter parts of those counties, there's a Republican trend which you can see in Murphy's district going from like R+2 to R+4 in 2012, so you might want a district that's 55% Obama 08 or so for it to be Lean D. Romney tended to overperform in that area though given the heavy concentration of retirees, so 57-58% Obama 08 is pretty safe but possibly not for the whole decade.

    •  In Florida (0+ / 0-)

      You really need Obama to have gotten at least 54/55% in all districts for even lean D, except for a couple of districts (Obama winning FL-2 at all, for instance, would make that somewhere between lean and likely D).

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 12:38:51 PM PDT

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      •  In 2008 numbers, ofcourse (0+ / 0-)

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 12:39:14 PM PDT

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        •  thanks to both you and Stephen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          It's a gerrymander that would never happen but I followed mostly what you advised.

          My issue is drawing six 53-55% 2008 Obama districts in the Tampa-St Pete (3) and Orlando (3) areas. That's like D+2. I'm putting them at Likely D but it seems like Lean D is more appropriate, even considering incumbents (Grayson and Castor) and strong challengers (Erlich and Demmings, for instance). But both areas are trending D with more Hispanic growth. I'm guessing Mica could win a 53% Obama district but can Bilirakis win a 53% Obama district that, for him, is mostly new territory? I'd think Bilirakis would have a shot

      •  FL-22 is a good example (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, jncca, wwmiv, Setsuna Mudo

        Of the kind of district a Florida Dem needs in order for a seat to be just out of play for the GOP.  It was an open seat in 2012 carved out of Allen West's old district.  In 2012 it was an open seat and Democrat Lois Frankel won it rather easily, by just under 10 points against a quality opponent.  It's something like D+4 or D+5 now.  Probably one of those seats the GOP will shoot for but never manage to crack unless there's a wave election.

        Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

        by ChadmanFL on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 01:41:22 PM PDT

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