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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/15 (339 comments)

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  •  Regarding NE-02 (8+ / 0-)

    Although the district got insignificantly less favorable by 2008 numbers in redistricting, what they did was not insignificant given Terry's very narrow win last year. The old district had to shed 30k people and Republicans did that and more when they also gave it new areas in the much more rural and conservative western parts of Sarpy County and took out relatively bluer ones in the northeast. Had they just shed the necessary population and kept Bellevue and Offutt Air Force Base in the district, it would have been roughly 1.6% better for Obama's 2008 margin. As coincidence would have it, Terry won by... 1.6% meaning his election would have been a pure coin flip if all things equal the only difference was that Republicans didn't draw the map.

    So while it's definitely great for us that they didn't outright crack Douglas County and make the district uncompetitive, they still impacted it enough that it possibly (if not probably) changed the 2012 outcome.

    •  That is a very good point (1+ / 0-)
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      Their gerrymandering kept the seat from actually getting bluer.  It's still just as hard to win as it was then, but under a neutral map it should have gotten easier for us, given that the rural part of the state is shedding population and thus gobbling up more voters from the rest to make equity (at least as long as Nebraska can support 3 districts, which should be through 2020 at least).

    •  But this is sort of like saying (6+ / 0-)

      "Had the GOP made NE-02 as blue as possible without cracking Douglas...." Yes, it could have made a difference at the margins, and perhaps Terry would have lost. But I was responding most to comments I've seen in recent days saying that the GOP had made the seat appreciably redder. They did not.

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      by David Nir on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 02:45:31 PM PDT

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