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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/15 (339 comments)

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  •  So, how would this work? (0+ / 0-)

    Leadership elections are at the start of congress.  Can someone submit a new "leadership bill" at any time?

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 08:53:04 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  The excellent David Corn... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingTag, BennyToothpick, jncca

      Has a timely explainer. Story here.

      Under House rules, a speaker can be challenged at any time. Any of the 435 House members can introduce a bill to boot a speaker—and obtain a quick vote. According to the House rules, "A resolution declaring vacant the office of Speaker is presented as a matter of high constitutional privilege." This means that such a measure essentially goes to the front of the line. It doesn't have to wind its way through the rules committee, where the speaker and his allies could smother the legislation. Nor would this privileged motion require unanimous consent to reach the House floor. A House member need only announce his or her intention to place this resolution on the floor, and the speaker must schedule a vote within two legislative days. The measure then can pass on a majority vote, as long as a quorum (that is, half the House) is present.

      If Boehner were to take on the tea partiers in his caucus, any one of them could force such a vote. Assuming the Democrats all voted in favor of the measure to dump Boehner as speaker, he could lose up to about 16 Republicans and still retain the position. But if more Rs joined the uprising, Boehner would be tossed. So one key calculation for Boehner—and for any mutineers-to-be—to consider is whether a rump group of Republicans could round up enough GOPers to vote him out of the top leadership post.

      And then what happens? Corn continues:
      If Boehner is cast out, the House would have to chose a new speaker, and Boehner could run again. Given the current R-D split of 232 to 200 (with three vacancies), Boehner would need 201 Republican votes to be restored to the post—assuming that the anti-Boehner Republicans do not vote with the Democrats to elect Pelosi or another Democrat as speaker. So Boehner could be pink-slipped as speaker if 16 or so GOPers turn against him (and are joined by all the Dems), but for the second vote Boehner could lose up to 31 Rs and still mount a triumphant return.

      The rebellious Rs, most certainly, would look to back another Republican as speaker. (Technically, they might be able to vote for Sen. Ted Cruz; oddly, a speaker need not be a House member.) But the House GOP caucus would need to unify behind a candidate, or risk dividing its votes and creating an opportunity for the Democrats to elect Pelosi as speaker. So if a group of upstart GOPers moves against Boehner, it would have to back a speaker candidate whom the entire House Republican caucus would support. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.)? Maybe. But the rebellion could trigger an internecine succession battle that is not easily resolved.

      This is the key point. Tossing out Speaker Boehner is the easy part; finding a consensus candidate to take his place is harder, because at that point, they're no longer banking on Democratic support.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Oct 15, 2013 at 09:17:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  THANK YOU! (0+ / 0-)
        Under House rules, a speaker can be challenged at any time. Any of the 435 House members can introduce a bill to boot a speaker—and obtain a quick vote.
        Thank you for this research.  I've been asking this for weeks.

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