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View Diary: Previewing November: Election Day in New Jersey and Virginia (94 comments)

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  •  I think he'll pick up some Chamber of Commerce (5+ / 0-)

    type GOP national backers who 1) despise the Tea Party's antics and 2) see Christie as a shrewd recruiter of the old Reagan Democrat sort of voter.  Why not?  He's doing it here.  Maybe think of him as their version of 1992's Bill Clinton.  Because he can attract money, right now I think he's as well positioned as anyone to get the GOP's 2016 nod.

    •  we can only hope he self destructs (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tomhodukavich, wasatch, GleninCA, Matt Z

      moving to the far right.  he will still have to do what romney did and veer way right to win primaries in red states.  i am hoping that will be his downfall.

      "The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Riane Eisler

      by noofsh on Sun Oct 27, 2013 at 09:48:39 AM PDT

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      •  Don't panic (5+ / 0-)

        Christie is really overrated as a candidate. Sure he's probably the Repugs' best shot, but that's a bit like saying you're more afraid of a ferret than the rabbits.

        For starters, in both the primaries and the general, his bully bruiser attitude doesn't play well outside NY/NJ. Evangelicals won't like it when he says 'fuck you' to some mom in front of her kids. In the general, women won't like it when he is aggressive towards Hillary.

        Another problem he has is the Tea Party - and to an extent Evangelicals - don't perceive him as one of them. Remember - in the current GOP this is very important. His ambiguous stances on gay marriage and the shutdown will come back to haunt him.

        "Aha!", I hear you say, but Romney and McCain got the nomination despite the same problems. Well, yes, and the Ts and Es have drawn the (erroneous) conclusion that they should make sure that next time they run a true conservative candidate. And while it's true that the Repubs usually run the 'next guy in line', Christie isn't next in line. Also, Goldwater and Reagan were not supported by the establishment. That compares to six candidates who were (since 1960).

        Then there's Sandy; thanks to touching the black guy and taking Federal munnies, in the primaries it will only hurt him (except in NY/NJ). In the general no one will care. Sandy is responsible for much of his crossover appeal in NJ. This will not translate to the Presidential election.

        Finally, any Republican starts out with a steep hill to climb. The Electoral College is against them. VA, NV, CO and NH are all getting bluer. Part of that is due to demographics in our favor. That alone should give us an extra two percentage points compared to 2012. Add another percent, maybe two if the candidate isn't black/brown (sad, but true). Tough going. Which will be made even harder by ongoing Teapublican extremism.

        •  Don't underestimate Christie (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Miss Blue, Adam B, Matt Z

          Sure, he's not a "true believer" teabagger, but he is very authoritarian.  And the conservatives - and yes, teabaggers - eat that shit up.

          I understand qualms about Hillary Clinton for President, but she can beat Christie and also deliver down ticket.  The House is where progressive legislation will start and do you really think Hillary won't sign progressive legislation?

          "Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

          by mconvente on Sun Oct 27, 2013 at 11:10:02 AM PDT

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    •  I'll go one better, I think he will be the GOP (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mikejay611, stevenaxelrod, EricS, Matt Z

      nominee, and he can pick off several blue states like Pa, NH, maybe MI. Because everyone has been told what great guy he is. Yet he actually has a demonstrably worse record than Corzine. Oh yeah, he "took on" the meanie teachers and their union. God I miss the Soviets, they kept repugs all they can demonize is teachers...and gays...and women...and educated folks....

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