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View Diary: McConnell primary challenger on raising Social Security retirement age: 'We have to start now' (77 comments)

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  •  driver is infant mortality & mid-life survival (0+ / 0-)

    As was noted up thread, the life expectancy for someone who reached age 65 in 1963 versus the expected life expectancy if you just reached age 65 in 2013 has only gone up a about 2.6 years. (see table here, from SS history)

    The average life expectancy at birth has gone from 59yo in 1930 (when SS was being formulated), to 79yo in 2010.  The drivers are reduced infant mortality & survival of childhood diseases (no inoculations back then), and better survival/treatments for heart disease, cancer, and so on.  Yes, income levels (correlating closely to lifestyle that you allude to) is a strong predictor of the disparity in life expectancy between blue collar/low-income individuals versus white collar.  But that's a correlation, not a causality.

    •  Good Discussion (2+ / 0-)
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      Habitat Vic, 1Nic Ven

      I'm an actuary and the table linked is good, but the life expectancy AT 65 has gone up 5 yrs since 1960 (according to CDC data) for the general population, BUT as stated, the SS retirement age by the time it's done under current law will go up 3 years from 65 to 68.  The 2 yr gap may make some differences, but other factors come into play.  The part that Dems should argue (as noted above) is that a lot of the older age longevity gains are with the wealthy when looking further into the demography, so raising it won't be a concern to the wealthy, but will be a concern to the working class.

      Once my regular job slows down, I would like to read the SS actuarial report to check for conservatism or liberalism in assumptions that would also make the future forecasts less concerning other than as talking points for folks like Mr Bevin.

      PS Wall Street bankers are very good at manipulating math to their advantage .. the thing with them is that they are only focused on the "short term" and fail to lack the long term view and implications of policy changes

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