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View Diary: Latest Polls Should Scare Scott Walker and Ron Johnson (52 comments)

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  •  And the backlash that put Wendy Davis into play (4+ / 0-)

    The TX voter disenfranchisement against women shows their level of fear.

    WI has gone full tilt for Mary Burke to run against Walker, regardless of valid objections from many on the left.

    When the threat is to ban birth control, a woman candidate will get more votes than a man. Shallow, but realistic.

    When the threat is to take yer gunns aweigh, a man will get more votes.

    So we know which issues we need to address....

    Both TX and WI are infected with far right wing evangelical Dominionist types in charge of the state legislatures, Both states have this problem in far too many local offices. This won't get much better until the whole faction gets ousted.

    It will be a tough slog.

    "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

    by GrumpyOldGeek on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 04:02:08 PM PDT

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    •  It's getting even tougher (4+ / 0-)

      because Burke, like the Democrats, won't commit to efforts to repeal Act 10 (the union busting).

      I'm certain they'll come to unions for money, to union members for volunteer hours and money, just as they always do.  Liberals are asking, though, why should we support those who don't have our back?

      There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

      by Puddytat on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 04:07:13 PM PDT

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      •  In the end, union support will have some influence (4+ / 0-)

        A lot will depend on her campaign skills and executing an effective strategy. Russ Feingold's endorsement and advice will help. For sure, the WI Democratic Party isn't much help.

        The wishy-washy Act 10 position is likely to reduce Dem voter turnout if nothing changes soon.

        There are just too many issues and complexities to deal with. The campaign has to be focused and simple. Otherwise, we can get trapped into reacting to the right wing lies du jour.

        In my view, it boils down to the usual factors. Money, messaging, money, GOTV, money, JD2, and did I mention money?

        We can't lose focus on the legislators, either. I'm sensing some local pushback from watching things change in the tone of newspaper editorials and LTE's, but these topics can turn on a dime. It's not much, but it's not getting worse.

        Timing is everything with JD2. I can only hope that there'll be a few indictments or immunities that come out before the elections. I've been avoiding adding my two cents to the speculation. I think Cog Dis has opened up a couple of good guesses so far, but 5+ counties tells me that there's a lot more going on.

        Yeah. It's already tough and it will get tougher.

        "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

        by GrumpyOldGeek on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 04:43:30 PM PDT

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        •  Kathleen Vinehout could be a wild card as well (4+ / 0-)

          While Mary Burke is liberal on social issues and moderate on fiscal issues, Vinehout is basically the other way around. Given Burke's wishy-washy statements on economic/education issues (Burke said that she opposes school vouchers, then turned around and said that she wouldn't repeal the statewide school voucher program in Wisconsin, for example), she's probably a corporatist Democrat. I would consider Vinehout to be a rural populist Democrat.

          Vinehout stated earlier today that she's going to spend six more weeks meeting with people interested in seeing her run for governor (which would mean a primary challenge to Mary Burke). If Vinehout were to enter the gubernatorial race, that would force Burke to completely change her campaign strategy, as Burke would have to tack leftward on economic issues and attack Vinehout over her mixed record on social issues.

          Another potential wild card is the special election in the 21st State Assembly District of Wisconsin (southeastern part of Milwaukee County). The Democratic candidate in that race (Elizabeth Coppola) appears to be running slightly to the left of Mary Burke despite running in a state assembly district that is several points more Republican than Wisconsin as a whole is. The Republican candidate in that race (Jessie Rodriguez) won a multi-way primary with the help of big money from an pro-school voucher group with ties to disgraced Former Republican State Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen. While Coppola has zero interest in running for governor, if Coppola were to defeat Rodriguez, that would completely blow up Burke's electability argument which is basically along the lines of "a progressive/rural populist/strongly pro-union candidate can't defeat Walker", which is complete nonsense.

          My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

          by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 06:07:38 PM PDT

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          •  This is why I was disappointed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GrumpyOldGeek, dragonlady, greenearth

            that Emilys List and Progressives United have already endorsed Burke.  

            There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

            by Puddytat on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 07:39:15 PM PDT

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            •  Particularly Progressives United (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dragonlady, Puddytat, GrumpyOldGeek

              ...and they're only providing fundraising support to Mary Burke. She needs advice from Russ Feingold himself (she's clearly not getting that), not fundraising help from Feingold's PAC.

              Also, Burke, and to a much greater extent, Burke's supporters, are openly bashing progressives. Burke said that, "They (referring to progressive critics of Burke) don’t know me and my positions, and that is what a campaign is all about." That came across as an insult to the Democratic base in Wisconsin.

              Earlier today, Mike Tate (who has done everything to promote Burke that he can without losing his job), criticized Ed Garvey for being skeptical/critical of Burke, and accused Garvey of being "closer to supporting Republicans than Democrats". That's a false accusation by Tate...Garvey is a staunch progressive who has never backed a Republican to my knowledge, and likely never will back a Republican.

              Burke is the only Democratic candidate running against Walker right now (Vinehout will decide whether or not to attempt a primary challenge to Burke in six weeks or so), so openly antagonizing progressives is TERRIBLE strategy on the part of Team Burke.

              My parents made me a Democrat. Scott Walker made me a progressive.

              by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 09:20:10 PM PDT

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            •  Progressives United polled their members. (0+ / 0-)

              I got an email asking if Progressives United should support Mary Burke or not. I didn't respond because I wasn't sure, but of those that did, over 75% said we should support her. The following is from an email I got on the results:

              By a 75.2%-24.8% margin, thousands of progressives voted to start organizing right away, so Burke can build a grassroots organization early.
              Here were some of the reasons given, also in my email:
                 I believe [Mary Burke] has the right set of values to unite us and get us back on the track of [a] good, honest government that hears all voices and works for the common good. -- Marie S.

                  Under ordinary circumstances, I'd be encouraging Progressives United and other allies to hold off until after the primaries...but today, the playing field is so far from level that this just may not be practical, given the high stakes involved. Mary Burke is an exceptionally well-qualified candidate. Supporting her now would give her a similar advantage to the one that Tammy Baldwin had in 2012 in being able to place her focus and resources early on with the general election. -- John Q.

                  Dems need a fresh face to challenge the career politician empty suit that is Governor Scott Walker. Mary Burke meets that requirement. She also has great business experience with a company that is truly "Wisconsin." What Ms. Burke lacks at this time is statewide name recognition. Getting involved with her campaign now will help her achieve the name recognition necessary to defeat Scott Walker. -- Jamie W.

          •  I was surprised at the early endorsements (0+ / 0-)

            Maybe that's part of the super-secret strategery and eleventy twenty dimension chess. Probably not. It makes no sense to wait forever to announce and then endorse early.

            Yeah, I understand the Progressive United arguments, excuses actually, for deciding to endorse early. I just don't agree with making such an important strategic decision based on the consensus of 3000 members who aren't experienced political strategists. To me, this confirms that the WI Democratic Party has no leaders at all. I think this could explain the idiotic electability argument nonsense that you describe among other things...

            Virtually locking out other viable candidates, for one thing....

            This doesn't seem like a strategy that Russ Feingold would push, either. This bugs me a lot. I wonder what Granny D would have to say to Russ about this stuff? Her grave is about 15 miles from my home. Maybe I'll go ask her...

            I think that a socially progressive candidate is critically important in WI right now. I'm not bothered with Burke's fiscal conservative position. She ran the Commerce Dept. before Walker privatized it as WEDC. And we know how that turned out. She's the most credible person to clean it up, imo.

            Her statements about repealing Act 10 were accurate but a political gaff. Act 10 can't be undone in one swell foop. That would be a budget disaster. It must be backed out carefully. Her statements implied that she might leave Act 10 in place. Ambiguity can be poisonous.

            This is the big time, Mary Burke, and you're just getting started.

            "Never wrestle with a pig: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it"

            by GrumpyOldGeek on Fri Oct 25, 2013 at 12:20:04 AM PDT

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            •  We already have a budget disaster (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              actually, you know, paying folks the miney back that walker swiped from them would blow up the deficit, but we're already in deficit to the tune of 500 million bucks. basically this 100 million tax cut is paid for by enforcing paying state taxes on online purchases. basically it goes from one hand, to the other without ever going in the pocket. so the money that would have slightly improved our fiscal picture by increasing revenue is instead spent to make walker look good, when it in reality for anyone not writing big checks to him, its the equivalent of 1 dollar a month, and for the homeowner paying 1500 a month in property taxes, its hardly even a rounding error. congrats, over a year that MIGHT translate to two chicken mcnugget meals or Big macs, and down the line we're going to have to pay for that, bigtime. save some small amount now, pay for it big time, later. its bad enough they are slipping in all sorts of goodies to his backers in bills at the last minute and ramming them through.  walker is a corrupt snake, but hes not the only one in the state. while we do have great progressive like Lafollete, Nelson and Feingold in our history, we also have losers like MCCarthy, Walker and Glenn Grothman.

        •  I don't speculate in diaries (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          which is why I didn't cite from Cog Dis and just provided the link.  The speculation there is never without some basis.

          There already is class warfare in America. Unfortunately, the rich are winning.

          by Puddytat on Thu Oct 24, 2013 at 07:40:38 PM PDT

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