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View Diary: Forget 'independents.' The path to Democratic victory is through our base (226 comments)

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  •  And about the gun issue... (4+ / 0-)

    I had a back-and-forth with a former Kossack (who has since been banned here because of the gun issue) on Facebook last month, where he brought up how McAuliffe may have "cost" himself the election because of his stance on guns that was brought up in the September debate.  I responded:

    Believe it or not, there is polling data from Virginia from earlier this year, when it was being discussed on a daily basis. Here are the results.

    - 92% of Virginians support background checks at gun shows.
    - 58% of Virginians support a national assault weapons ban.
    - 59% of Virginians support banning high capacity ammunition magazines.
    - 60% of Virginians support limiting gun purchases to one a month.

    It's not like Terry said he was against putting armed guards in schools, which 60% of Virginians support. Every specific issue that you've mentioned has CLEAR majority support among Virginians.

    He pointed out the poll was from January, and that support for those measures had "significantly" gone down since then.  To which I said:
    The last national poll that asked about assault weapons was Pew back in May. These were their Favor/Oppose numbers.

    5/1-5/13: 54%-42%
    2/13-18/13: 56%-41%
    1/9-13/13: 55%-40%

    I don't see "SIGNIFICANT" erosion there. That's all noise well within the margin of error for their last 3 polls on the subject. But regardless, who cares if there was significant erosion on that, because as you say, the polls don't mean anything anyway, right?

    But like [another person in the thread] said, national polls mean little when it comes to a statewide election. Unfortunately, the last poll in Virginia I could find was from January. Hey, if you can find any more recent polling for just Virginia, great. Otherwise, that's the only hard evidence we have to go with. Anything else, and you start wading into Dean "Unskewed Polls" Chambers territory.

    BTW, one thing about McAuliffe, he's no slouch when it comes to campaigns. Given all the money he's been able to raise, you don't think his pollster's been asking Virginians questions about guns (as well as all the other big issues) on a regular basis? And if the polling showed a majority of Virginians weren't in favor of such a measure, you think McAuliffe would've still brought it up on his own in the debate? He could've given generic answers, or stopped at just the background checks issue. But he didn't.

    One of the things that turns liberals off about McAuliffe is that we think he has no real convictions, and goes whichever way the wind blows. But that also means when he says something, he's poll-tested it to make sure what he says IS the way the wind blows. These kind of politicians almost never stick their neck out on the line on an issue. They're unwilling to take unpopular stances and do the hard work to try and change minds to their point of view. So when he brings those issues up, that tells me they have majority support in Virginia. Even to this day.

    Oh, and you can bet they have majority support among LIKELY voters as well, because that's all that really matters.

    That's the thing.  Even on guns, Terry didn't really stick his neck out on it.  His policies on guns is what most Virginians want.

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