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View Diary: How many reasons to support Paul Ryan’s 2014 challenger? (24 comments)

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  •  17. (0+ / 0-)

    the number of districts we need to take the house. We can probably find more than that which would be easier to win than WI-01 against Paul Ryan.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Oct 28, 2013 at 10:18:51 PM PDT

    •  But: SocSec Narrative & Scott Walker up-ticket (5+ / 0-)
      3.    Ryan is point man in House for cutting Social Security & Medicare (although he benefited as a child). Each percentage point of Ryan's 2014 results will affect Democratic, Republican and VSP impressions and spin and national narrative on popularity & acceptability of these cuts.
      2.    Every Democratic vote in Ryan’s district is also a likely vote against Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker.
    •  Except (8+ / 0-)

      that we shouldn't just target enough districts to win a majority.
      We also need to make a statement by defeating at least one member of the House Republican leadership.

      •  yes, Mitch McConnell. (0+ / 0-)

        You're right, though, but I've looked at the districts and the recruits and the polling and I think we could pick up 30+ districts and still not beat Ryan. We should target him if we can, but we'd need a better recruit than probably Zerban or Kaleka. Or for Ryan to retire. I think we're more likely to win a seat in Kansas or South Dakota or Arkansas than to beat Paul Ryan.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Oct 28, 2013 at 11:35:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If Zerban inspires more 2-cycle challenges by (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          buffie, Sue B, Amber6541, Calamity Jean

          Progressives,

          through the power of his example, and of our response to it,

          then this inspiration could help us gain challengers and seats in other districts in 2014 and 2016.

        •  I don't know (6+ / 0-)

          Paul Ryan is WAY to the right of his district.  I'd like our odds better in a presidential year, but I don't think Ryan is invulnerable at all.  

          Besides, even if Ryan squeaks out a very tight win, he would be weakened.  I think of Michele Bachmann...there are other factors involved, of course, but she only won re-election by the slimmest of margins and that has contributed to her much-decreased profile in Congress.  The other benefit of a tight race regardless of outcome is it makes Ryan look very beatable in 2016, which would attract more quality candidates to challenge him and attract more progressive money to his challenger.  

          Political compass: -8.75 / -4.72

          by Mark Mywurtz on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 03:49:17 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Who would a "better candidate" be? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madcitysailor

          Do you have someone in mind or is this just more dreaming about a movie-star candidate who doesn't exist with the name recognition of Miley Cyrus? To often it seems to me we dis the qualities of candidates we have, imagining wistfully that there is some perfect candidate out there somewhere.

          Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

          by anastasia p on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:24:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know, someone who could (0+ / 0-)

            actually win. Someone who could raise enough money to be competitive, which Zerban didn't really do last cycle, and who would have the support of the DCCC, which is generally needed if one actually wants to win.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:48:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If Ryan weakened more by Zerban's 2014 run (0+ / 0-)

              then it would be a shame to reward the DCCC's non-involvement by deferring to their preferred candidate in 2016.

              •  I think the truth is, if they thought he could win (0+ / 0-)

                they'd support Zerban. They must have never seen polling that indicated that. The PPP polls for MoveOn also showed Ryan to be fine, even after his constituents were told he voted to shutdown government, where dozens of other Republicans were shown to be behind, and many even before that revelation.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 08:18:40 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  DCCC seems to mix ideology w/its poll-reading (0+ / 0-)

                  when deciding which local candidates to support.

                  If Progressives don't do the same, then we are unlikely to get many better Democrats.

                  Howie Klein's summary of the PPP poll results:

                  PPP shows Ryan's approval rating down to 49%. If the election were held today against "a generic Democrat," Ryan would win, 50-43%. When voters are made aware that Ryan voted to shut down the government, his chances of winning fall by 2 points and the undecideds start breaking for the "generic Democrat," whose share goes up to 46%. But Ryan didn't just vote to shut down the government, he broke with the GOP leadership and stuck with the tea baggers in opposing the Senate bill to re-open the government and prevent a default. That happened after the poll was taken.
                  •  in other words (0+ / 0-)

                    you're acting like the poll says more than it did. We don't know how they would've responded to his vote. And we definitely don't know that they'll care in 12 months.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 08:46:14 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  IOW, 2nd time Prog challenge, to high-profile (0+ / 0-)

                      media-coddled extremist like Ryanm

                      deserves benefit of doubt

                      both: if and when DCCC tries to replace challenger w/less Progressive candidate,

                      and: now even though this district's somewhat out-of-date polling lags some other districts, and

                      more importantly: support for Zerban (even if he falls short of beating Ryan) can add value in the various ways that I and you have mentioned earlier in this dialog.

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