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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/4 (401 comments)

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  •  Depends On What Happens With Premiums Next Year... (0+ / 0-)

    Right now, the issue is having only marginal effect.  The website is an embarrassment but doesn't seem poised to turn votes.  While there are undoubtedly some very furious people out there whose policies were canceled, I think the fallout from that will be modest as well because, let's face it, most people in the individual health care market are small business owners, self-employed, and farmers (i.e. already Republican voters).  But where this becomes real for people is insurance premiums.  I've always been suspicious of the prospect of willing participation by the "young invincibles" in the health care exchanges.  If they don't buy policies in sufficient numbers in the next few months, insurance companies are gonna raise premiums through the roof, at which point a lot more voters have skin in the game, and at which point a lot more Democrats that voted for Obamacare will face tough GOP ads that will put them on defense.  It's too early to say whether this happens, but for the last year and a half, it's been my concern about the 2014 midterms.

    •  No one will care (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pollbuster, Chachy, Swamp Cat

      12 months from now whether the ACA website was poorly set up and took several months to work out the glitches and get to par. Frankly, that happens all the time. Even the private industry has such tech issues, some of which have been unrelated to the ACA (the data center breaking down and stranding the site for several days), and they'll be gone by next year and forgotten by election because the issues really aren't significant to the working of the bill nor to the issues facing voters.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 09:39:58 AM PST

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      •  As I Said, The Entanglement Comes Not From The.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rdw72777, but premium hikes next year if young people don't sign up in the needed numbers, regardless of the website accessibility.  I have always been skeptical and remain so that young people will purchase health care rather than take the penalty.  If a large number simply decide to take the penalty--and I have no clue how this penalty will be enforced--that's when Obamacare becomes a big problem for Dems due to insurance company premium hikes.  Hopefully it doesn't happen, but I'm not encouraged by early indicators.

        •  Well I don't disagree on the issue (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27, pollbuster

          I just fail to see how any response from insurance companies can hurt Dems.  It'll either be "big business with huge profits is gouging Americans", which isn't a new story, or "young people need more ducation on benefits of insurance."

          I am actually surprised the insurance companies have remained relatively unscathed so far.  A lot of the law was written to fix their scruples (no pre-existing conditions, etc.) and yet they seem like heroes in the media.  I'm hoping that's the shoe that drops, or rather, that Dems run on in 2014.

          But then again, with 12 months to go it could go in numerous directions.  Like you, I was always a little uncertain about the youth population buying insurance, but who knows how it will pan out.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:07:59 AM PST

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          •  Obamacare Will Be The GOP Catchall For All That... (0+ / 0-)

   wrong with health care, and among certain voters, they'll probably get away with that cynicism if the program does not appear to be successfully working by next year at this time.  In retrospect, and at least for the short-term, it seems politically shrewd that the Republicans voted unilaterally against it in 2009 (even though it's their damn plan...don't even get me started on that!) because they can make the Democrats own everything that is going wrong with health care and blame it on Obamacare.  If the program turns out to be successful, they won't be able to use Obamacare as a weapon against Democrats anymore but probably won't pay the consequences for getting it wrong either since they never paid the consequences for predicting "the end of freedom" with Medicare, as one of many examples.  

            The fact that Massachusetts made the template for Obamacare work gives me some encouragement, but that had a rocky start too, and it seems likely to me that even if Obamacare has only one rocky year as Romneycare did, there will still be some political casualties next year before the issue becomes neutral or a net positive for Dems.

            •  The triangulation possibilities (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27, wadingo, pollbuster, askew, JBraden

              Make my head hurt.  I guess my "sun is always shining" view is twofold.  

              1.  The media wll have moved on, as there's always a Kardashian about to get married.

              2.  I'm not sure a huge increase in premiums, even in a doomsday scenario, would be in place by next November 2014.  

              I know my company's rates aren't announced until January, and it's always been around Q1 in any company I've ever worked for.  I doubt the rates could be raised in Q1-2014 using any reality of Obamacare not getting enough healthy youngin's to sign up.  

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:47:57 AM PST

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          •  Millennials have, (5+ / 0-)

            for the most part, not experienced anything remotely resembling financial security.  And Kaiser Health polling shows that a huge majority of that age group (more than seven out of ten) considers health insurance important to have.

            I consider the "young invincible" crap to be mainly GOP propaganda.  I'm one myself (age 28), and I'm sure as hell not planning on going uninsured anytime soon.

            Proud progressive stuck in George J. "Mike" Kelly's PA-3 (where birth control is tantamount to Pearl Harbor).

            by JBraden on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:56:04 AM PST

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            •  I guess I just don't know (0+ / 0-)

              If it will be affordable to the quantity who don't have it.  At least some of that group needs to pay for insurance for it all to work.

              I guess we'll know next much of how all the numbers work has eluded me all along.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 11:08:46 AM PST

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    •  Most people are in the process of enrolling (6+ / 0-)

      into their employer-based coverage for 2014 already and any premium shock will be gone by January. And since most people have seen the premiums increase every year for the past 5 or so years, most people won't be shocked by an increase. And many people may be in the same situation as people at my massive employer in that ACA regulations made our company provide better coverage in 2014 at a cheaper rate.  

      In 2014, Americans will be going to the doctor for preventive care and not pay any money; getting birth control for free; a smaller donut hole in Medicare; and getting refund checks from their insurance companies who didn't meet the 80% premium spending on medical expenses threshold. Oh, and millions of Americans will have coverage or affordable coverage for the first time in years.

      Obamacare is going to be a net winner for Dems in 2014.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Mon Nov 04, 2013 at 10:47:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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