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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Democrats win unexpected nailbiter in Virginia governor's race (141 comments)

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  •  beat 2009 (0+ / 0-)

    Hypothesis:

    2008 was the turning point for VA becoming a swing state, and this was largely the result of Obama expanding the electorate and getting traditionally low young and minority voters registered and to the polls.

    2009 showed the 2008 coalition crumble with a candidate extremely unsuited to the new Dem electorate (Creigh Deeds) not being able to turn new voters to habitual voters.  2010 was another kick because this coalition wasn't there.  And the results brought into stark relief for a large portion of this coalition the consequences of this.  So 2012 reactivated this electorate.  A good portion of the new electorate has matured in voting habits and are more likely to show up, McAuliffe made it a base election and went after the new coalition voters.  There is still a turnout drop, there always will be across both parties and all demographics, but the Obama coalition is no longer more dramatic in it unless maybe you are pulling a Deeds.  I don't think that 2014 will see a drop-off because the profile is close.  If 2015 with the state senate/house follows the same pattern VA is good as a bluish purple electorate even in the off-off-off year (congressional mid-term off year, gobernatorial off-off year, state house mid-term off-off-off year).

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