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View Diary: Are libertarians really to blame for the Cooch's defeat? (12 comments)

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  •  Sarvis hurt McAuliffe. (4+ / 0-)

    If I read the graph correctly on Maddow, it said that Dem voters outnumbered Republicans by 39% to 30% this time.

    McAuliffe won by less than 3%. Seems obvious that a lot of Dems voted for Sarvis.

    •  if true Sarvis played stronger in Dem strongholds (5+ / 0-)

      in other words, one way to cross-check this hypothesis is to compare how Sarvis did in traditionally Red-dominated precincts versus how Sarvis did in traditionally Blue-dominated precincts.

      If Sarvis was syphoning primarily Blue votes then Sarvis will pull a higher ratio of the vote in areas like Fairfax County rather than in Red areas like Rockingham and Highland counties.

      Sarvis is going to get more votes in population centers- everyone did. You have to look at the fraction rather than the absolute number of votes.

      If Sarvis was pulling votes from both sides more or less the same, then the Sarvis vote percentage will be more or less constant across the entire state.

      Where did Sarvis get the highest percentage of the vote? Does anybody know?

      •  Looking at one of the interactive maps... (2+ / 0-)

        It's kind of hard to say, because Sarvis didn't really seem to perform consistently from one county to another, regardless of whether it went blue or red.

        It seems as though in blue counties, Sarvis does better when McAuliffe does worse, but in the Democratic NOVA counties, Sarvis does seem to have cut into GOP votes. There is a much larger sample of red counties, and sometimes it seems as if Sarvis shaved off some from Cuccinelli, other times not.

        Either way, Sarvis was certainly not courting the Tea Party extremist vote. Whatever GOP vote Sarvis got was almost certainly the RINO/moderate kind, given his position on social issues and immigration. I feel pretty confident in saying that Cuccinelli and Jackson probably got just about all of the dedicated Tea Party vote there is to get. And it's not enough in Virginia. So, by all means, I hope they decide they weren't conservative enough.

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