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View Diary: VA-AG: Obenshain's lead at 82 votes, still Dem-leaning provisionals to count. UPDATE--now 17 votes. (274 comments)

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  •  so then, H would need just (1+ / 0-)
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    256 of the 494 in Fairfax, right?

    "The purpose of education is not to validate ignorance, but to overcome it" - Dr. Lawrence Krauss

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 02:58:32 PM PST

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    •  Apparently only 45 percent of Alexandria's (5+ / 0-)

      provisionals were accepted. So not all of these will get counted. Luckily, Herring doesn't need many to pull ahead.

    •  494 aren't necessarily counted (6+ / 0-)

      Only the ones of those 494 deemed valid votes will be counted.  Could be none of them (unlikely).  Won't be all of them.  Someone could look at the # of provisionals in other districts and the percentage of those that were counted in the end and see how many is likely.  

      Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

      by FredFred on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 03:08:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Think it's 392 . . . (1+ / 0-)
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      no idea though how many of those are going to be counted.  

      •  Sorry, 392 (0+ / 0-)

        If they convert at the 45% rate of Alexandria, and they break the same as the rest of the county (61-39) then they would break 107-68 giving H 39 votes and putting him up by 22 before the recount.

        My fear - they convert at less than the 45% rate because people had assumed lawyers would handle things for them, and won't show up to be counted.

        If they break 61-39 then we need at least 82 of the 392 to be counted to get 18 votes and have a 1-vote lead going into the recount.

        Reminder though - the last AG race recount netted ~50 votes for the Republican, and we had a Democratic governor at the time so Dems oversaw the election process.


        Democrats *do* have a plan for Social Security - it's called Social Security. -- Ed Schultz

        by FredFred on Sat Nov 09, 2013 at 06:28:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 2005 recount (0+ / 0-)

          was +30 for McDonnell over Deeds.  I believe that both candidates actually increased their vote total during the recount, but that McDonnell had the positive net.  Going into the recount McDonnell had about 330 vote advantage.

          I don't think that the Governor will have any involvement in the process.  It'll be local election officials, attorneys for the campaigns and the Courts.  The SBE has a GOP majority, and that may have come into play in the interpretation of the rules governing provisional ballots.  

          I don't worry too much about one side getting an unfair advantage in this regard after the totals are certified -- both sides will be lawyered up with some of the best election lawyers in the country.   With the judges it could be a different question -- you would like to think that the judges overseeing the process will act in good faith and with respect for the professional duties and interpret the law in a non-partisan way.  I think usually this happens, but as we saw in 2000, not always.  In the case of this election the stakes are lower, so I think this might actually bode well for a clean recount.

          The big concern is that, with a race this close, there is no such thing as a count that is 100 percent accurate.  It's just not possible -- even with everyone working on the basis of good faith you have a high probability of machine error and human error on the margins.  And odds are that not everyone has worked in good faith, even if most have -- although I remain fairly confident that blatant cheating should be exposed during the recount.

          Even with canvassing, and scrutinizing ballots you could have a rate that is 99.9999 percent accurate, but the error rate could still be enough to flip the outcome.

          Whoever goes into the recount with the lead will have the advantage, obviously.  The closer the lead is to triple digits, the more likely it is that the person wins after the recount.  Beyond that, who knows.

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