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View Diary: VA-AG: Obenshain's lead at 82 votes, still Dem-leaning provisionals to count. UPDATE--now 17 votes. (274 comments)

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  •  If even just 200 of the Fairfax provisionals count (8+ / 0-)

    And they go 60/40 Herring, he would pick up 40 votes, enough for a 25 vote lead based on the current count.  So I'm feeling pretty good, but we'll have to wait three more days to be sure.

    •  Provisional ballots are outliers . . . (4+ / 0-)

      I was looking at these closely last night, and they are a lot less predictable than absentee votes from a larger, more representative group of voters within a county.

      e.g. statewide, "write-in" received less than about 0.3 percent of all votes.  "Write-in" in the provisional category has received over 10 percent of the vote.  Herring won Loudoun 53-47, but he lost the provisionals 2 to 1.

      In other counties the votes in provisionals have tracked more closely with the countywide number.

      The x-factor are provisionals in Montgomery County, Virginia and Spotsylvania County, along with the miscellaneous 1 to 3 provisional Obenshain votes that could pop up in strong, but less populous Obenshain friendly jurisdictions.

      If those are all reported, Herring has a very strong chance of getting the 15-20 or so votes that he needs to take the lead going into the recount, but it won't be by much.

      I would guess a best case for him is a net of around 80 votes out of Fairfax, although there is a lot of uncertainty with these votes, which runs in both directions.

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