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View Diary: VA-AG: Obenshain's lead at 82 votes, still Dem-leaning provisionals to count. UPDATE--now 17 votes. (274 comments)

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  •  The 2005 recount (0+ / 0-)

    was +30 for McDonnell over Deeds.  I believe that both candidates actually increased their vote total during the recount, but that McDonnell had the positive net.  Going into the recount McDonnell had about 330 vote advantage.

    I don't think that the Governor will have any involvement in the process.  It'll be local election officials, attorneys for the campaigns and the Courts.  The SBE has a GOP majority, and that may have come into play in the interpretation of the rules governing provisional ballots.  

    I don't worry too much about one side getting an unfair advantage in this regard after the totals are certified -- both sides will be lawyered up with some of the best election lawyers in the country.   With the judges it could be a different question -- you would like to think that the judges overseeing the process will act in good faith and with respect for the professional duties and interpret the law in a non-partisan way.  I think usually this happens, but as we saw in 2000, not always.  In the case of this election the stakes are lower, so I think this might actually bode well for a clean recount.

    The big concern is that, with a race this close, there is no such thing as a count that is 100 percent accurate.  It's just not possible -- even with everyone working on the basis of good faith you have a high probability of machine error and human error on the margins.  And odds are that not everyone has worked in good faith, even if most have -- although I remain fairly confident that blatant cheating should be exposed during the recount.

    Even with canvassing, and scrutinizing ballots you could have a rate that is 99.9999 percent accurate, but the error rate could still be enough to flip the outcome.

    Whoever goes into the recount with the lead will have the advantage, obviously.  The closer the lead is to triple digits, the more likely it is that the person wins after the recount.  Beyond that, who knows.

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