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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/14 (205 comments)

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  •  re: IL-12 (8+ / 0-)

    Democrats typically run several points ahead of Obama's 2012 performance in this district and it really shouldn't be surprising that Enyart, a moderate, would be able to get a lot of Romney voter support to make up for losses to the Green Party candidate. I still doubt that person took more from the right than the left, just that there were a lot of natural presidential R, downballot D voters who voted Romney/Enyart and they outweighed any Obama/Green Party votes.

    For reference, Obama did nearly 8% worse here than his statewide share. But in 2010, Giannoulias and Quinn did just 3.5% worse, Miller better than statewide, and Kelly about the same all while losing statewide. Our other candidates in 2012 and 2008 and carried the district by wide margins and none lagged as far behind their statewide vote share as Obama did in 2012.

    •  That would be a lot, though (0+ / 0-)

      You're talking about a very big chunk of the electorate voting unusually, if R/E votes are to cancel out O/G votes.

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      by David Nir on Thu Nov 14, 2013 at 02:01:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well I look at it like this (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir, James Allen, JGibson, MichaelNY

        Enyart was a great candidate for winning over those usual pres-R/house-D voters while Plummer was not at all. And then it isn't like all of those Green Party votes would have otherwise gone to the main party candidates had the Green Party not been on the ballot. A non-trivial amount would have undervoted, while it seems logical to guess that a large proportion would have voted Dem than R after that.

        So maybe out of the 5.6% you get 40% undervote (or don't vote at all), and then the remainder splits 90-10 Enyart/Plummer if that Green party candidate weren't on the ballot. That leaves Enyart with just 3% of the vote that went to that Green candidate, and it's not hard for him to make up that loss among Romney voters plus some, let's say he gets net 5% of the Romney vote share once we cancel out all the Obama/Plummer votes with other Romney/Enyart ones.

        Obviously that math is just speculation on my part, but it still isn't that big of a gap when you consider this district and especially the neighboring 15th have the largest share of presidential-R, downballot-D voters in the state in recent election cycles. There were other districts where even underfunded Dems still ran considerably ahead of Obama in two-party share and they typically fit that pattern.

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