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View Diary: New NBC Poll Not So Hot For The New Jersey Thug (62 comments)

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  •  If Hillary in 2016 (6+ / 0-)

    is representing the party that RAISED Social Security (e.g. adopted the Brown Harkin Senate bill) why do I have the miserable feeling there will be comments here on Daily Kos who will tell us they will be "reluctantly casting a grudging vote for Hillary.....because she and Brown and Harkin didn't raise Social Security ENOUGH!"?

    In any case I am still not convinced Hillary will run. Her numbers are good because of mostly name recognition (going on 24 years by the time 2016 gets here). There were an awful lot of people (including Very Serious People of the Pundits...and the DNC....and just, well everybody!) that considered her or even KNEW in the marrow of their bones she was "INEVITABLE" all through 2007...and then she embraced the winning Mark Penn strategy....and became "OUT-evitable."

    Shalom.

    "God has given wine to gladden the hearts of people." Psalm 104:15

    by WineRev on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 06:56:11 AM PST

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    •  they certainly made a huge mistake (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      a2nite, Fury, wishingwell

      in underestimating Obama. Everyone who does that is making a big mistake.

      however, i doubt they would make that mistake again. super tuesday will be completely different next time.

      guaranteed.

      -You want to change the system, run for office.

      by Deep Texan on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:01:06 AM PST

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      •  super tuesday is one thing (0+ / 0-)

        I'm wondering how Hillary would deal with Iowa this time.  Likely she would hope to minimize it after what the caucuses did to her last time but that's really hard to do for a Democrat.  If it's the same thing, where she has to go all in to head off a popular insurgent, it could be real trouble for her.  The Iowa campaigns in 07 became incredibly entrenched and it will be hard for her to gain support outside those who already supported her in 07.

        The question is whether or not a fresh face with talent is going to show up.  Because Iowa will provide the same opportunity to derail 'inevitable' as it did last time.  

        When truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

        by Sun dog on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:32:57 AM PST

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        •  Hopefully, her people would spend money more ... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sun dog, Remediator, Deep Texan

          intelligently than they did in Iowa the last time around.  I still laugh every time I think about them buying some huge quantity of snow shovels in the event that they had to shovel their supporters out to get them to the caucuses, as if there is any voter in Iowa who doesn't have their own snow shovel.

          And then there were the heaping trays of sandwiches to feed their caucus-goers, which prompted one of our Obama supporters to remark, "What? No whiskey sour fountain?" (We had coffee and cookies made by the young daughter of our precinct captain, which is much more "Iowa" than heaping trays of commercially prepared sandwiches.)

          The Clinton folks REALLY missed the boat by spending money on things like that, and lots of media buys, rather than on organizers on the ground.  They had something like half as many field offices as Obama, and opened most of them later.

          Bin Laden is dead. GM and Chrysler are alive.

          by leevank on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:46:13 AM PST

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          •  One way or another (0+ / 0-)

            Iowa will be huge.  That is, if there is some real talent against her again.  And if it's only one serious challenger instead of two it could be a real problem for her.  She would have to win over a bunch of people who weren't with her last time.  She's probably done some of that by being such a team player with Obama since then.  But there will definitely be room for a new candidate to pick up a lot of people who just won't identify themselves with her candidacy after how it was last time.  I actually got smacked by one of her supporters at the caucus.  It got real tribal and real angry.  I'll never forget how they looked at the end of the night at the Jefferson Jackson dinner.  

            When truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

            by Sun dog on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:57:17 AM PST

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            •  I still love the Iowa caucus system (0+ / 0-)

              At least I love the way the Democrats do it. My late uncle, who was for Biden first, Obama second, and Hillary third, ended up caucusing for Hillary in his last caucus.  He was as loyal a Democrat as has ever existed, a retired union employee at the John Deere plant in Waterloo, and when I asked him why he'd done it, he explained it as follows (which isn't a direct quote, but is pretty close):

              "Biden wasn't viable in my precinct.  It was between Obama and Edwards, with Hillary third and borderline viable.  One of my old friends, who I've been involved with in many campaigns, asked me to caucus for Hillary to be sure she was going to be viable. I did it, because if we're going to have a chance to win in November, we're going to have to be united and work together."

              That's the way coalition building should work, and in my opinion, it's a big part of the reason Democrats do so much better in Iowa than in otherwise comparable states such as Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota.

              Bin Laden is dead. GM and Chrysler are alive.

              by leevank on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:20:07 PM PST

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    •  "it's dkos, jake..." (0+ / 0-)
      why do I have the miserable feeling there will be comments here on Daily Kos who will tell us they will be "reluctantly casting a grudging vote for Hillary.....because she and Brown and Harkin didn't raise Social Security ENOUGH!"?

      Sarah Palin is a disgusting racist pig.

      by memofromturner on Tue Nov 12, 2013 at 07:53:50 AM PST

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