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View Diary: Socialist Sawant Now Ahead in Seattle City Council Race! (26 comments)

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  •  Reason to be confident now of Sawant win (4+ / 0-)

    Here's a reason to be confident that the Sawant Surge will continue to final victory.  The Seattle Times story reported:

    "The Sawant campaign said it had raised more than $8,000 since election night and had more than 100 volunteers knocking on doors over the weekend.

    “That’s just the beginning,” political director Philip Locker said. “We intend to make sure all ballots are cured and rehabilitated.”

    Conlin has been reaching out to supporters through email."

    Sawant actually has supporters out in the field.  The Democratic incumbent is relying on e-mail to rally supporters.  

    •  Sawant needs to net an additional 1960 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nirbama, Wreck Smurfy

      votes  to avoid a recount.  a recount occurs when the margin is 2000 votes or less and within .5%. its good that she is raising money and connecting with supporters, but the more important matter is seeing that lead grow as votes are counted.

      •  not quite right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nirbama, pigpaste

        The key factor is "within 0.5%" ... that difference is much, much less than 2000 for this race.

        Approximately 180,000 votes have been tallied so far. Let's assume that that the final total will be 200,000. For simplicity, we'll pretend that there are no write-ins, so that the two candidates get all 200,000. In that case, anything beyond a 50.25%-49.75% victory is outside of the auto-recount window.

        0.5025 * 200000 = 100500
        0.4975 * 200000 = 99500

        Ergo, a lead greater than 1000 votes would preclude an automatic recount.

        In reality, then, in any WA jurisdiction with fewer than 400,000 voters, the requisite vote margin will be determined by the percentage difference (0.5%) rather than the numerical difference (2000). And there has never been a non-statewide jurisdiction in Washington in which 400,000 votes were cast. Not even Congressional Districts -- in 2012, the largest CD vote total was 374,580 in WA-07.

        Markos threatens to eliminate UIDs. Therefore, for posterity's sake I'm putting mine here in my sig. It's UID:180. That's UID:180. Have I mentioned that my UID is ONE HUNDRED EIGHTY?

        by N in Seattle on Wed Nov 13, 2013 at 01:50:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  correction: 1 non-statewide jurisdiction (0+ / 0-)

          Countywide elections occur in Washington, for County Executive, Sheriff, and perhaps County Council (those are usually by district, however). Three counties in WA -- King, Pierce, and Snohomish -- have more than 400,000 registered voters.

          Pierce and Snohomish are only slightly over that line, however, 440K and 416K, respectively. And county-level elections are always in off-years (this year, in fact), where turnout is rarely above 50-60%. So they never reach 400,000 voters.

          King County is much larger. For 2013, it reports 1,175,879 registered voters, so a mere 34% turnout would result in a 400,000-vote election. In 2013, the County Executive race has already counted 418,214 votes, with thousands more awaiting processing.

          Markos threatens to eliminate UIDs. Therefore, for posterity's sake I'm putting mine here in my sig. It's UID:180. That's UID:180. Have I mentioned that my UID is ONE HUNDRED EIGHTY?

          by N in Seattle on Wed Nov 13, 2013 at 02:08:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •   True but eventually there will be a area with (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          N in Seattle

          400000 people in it, due to increases in population. anyway, thanks for the clarification.

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