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View Diary: The outsider philosophy of the coach who never punts, and why he's like us (83 comments)

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  •  I think the statistician's reasoning is flawed. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walkshills, Bush Bites, Cali Scribe

    What Kelley has done at the high school level is not necessarily indicative of the soundness of his strategy; as at the lower tiers football is all about relative talent moreso than strategy.

    That being said, I think the statisticians reasoning is flawed. I'll bet that a lot of the succesful fourth down conversions supporting the thesis involve late-game drives where the offense is forced to try to convert, played against prevent defenses more concerned about stopping touchdowns than first downs.  Once you removed all the plays where one team was being forced to "go for it" due to being behind, I'd suspect the data pool would be so small as to have high error bars.

    •  Somehow I doubt (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greengemini, mkor7

      That there exists such a simple flaw that has eluded everyone else that's looked at this. And I don't know that you need to only look at 4th & X situations for success rates. What matters is the yardage you need. I can't really see why the frequency of obtaining a first down would be different for 2nd & 1 versus 3rd & 1. It's just one yard either way.

      In fact:

      Decisions to go for it on fourth down (that is, not to kick) are sufficiently rare, however, that they cannot be used to estimate the value of trying for a first down or touchdown. I therefore use the outcomes of third-down plays instead.
      So yep, this objection has been anticipated and overcome.

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      by David Nir on Wed Dec 25, 2013 at 05:56:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In Canada, you're more likely to see teams go for (1+ / 0-)
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      it in short yard situations because the DL is a little further away from the ball. QB sneaks are almost money plays up there.

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