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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/18 (289 comments)

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  •  Meaning the path for Christie is narrower (6+ / 0-)

    Because stronger conservatives with more cash than Santorum will make it harder for him to win states outside the north east.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 09:37:31 AM PST

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    •  But Christie is stronger than Romney (0+ / 0-)

      Christie's fundamentals are just plain stronger.

      I don't regard Christie as any weaker or stronger at this point than McCain or Romney, I don't think it's even knowable without knowing come 2015 who else is running.  The competition is everything.  I, for one, am on record that if Jeb Bush runs, he ends up being the nominee.  If not, I think it depends on so many people's decisions.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 10:10:43 AM PST

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      •  Are Christie's fundamentals stronger? (6+ / 0-)

        Christie's style doesn't match up well culturally to either Iowa or South Carolina. He's too blusterous, and would come off as a rude bully in debates. He's felt free to work with ethically challenged Democrats in his home state (which Cruz, Rand, Ryan, etc, would be stupid not to attack him for), and is perceived by many in the conservative establishment and grassroots of the Republican party as having sabotaged Romney's Presidential campaign (not least with a ridiculous pretentious, self-serving keynote address at the Republican Convention, where instead of the news media talking about a narrative for Romney, the only thing that voters heard about was how long Christie spent talking about himself).

        He's just going to play very poorly in the south, the west, and in some midwestern states. He doesn't have the same enormous financial backing and uniform establishment support that Romney will have had, nor the institutional frameworks in place from a previous Presidential campaign. Above and beyond that, Romney's principle challengers were ridiculously bad. People forget just how much of a flake Newt Gingrich was; he spent most of the first eight months of the campaign on book tour and it seemed like he was running for President to promote his book. He was a has been a decade removed from any elected position or political importance. He fired his entire staff mid-campaign because they were trying to force him to run a "conventional campaign" and he fell well behind in Iowa and New Hampshire. He still managed to up-end Romney in South Carolina, and forced Romney to make a desperate, full-court press just to win Florida.

        Rick Santorum also had virtually no money. He was half a decade removed from elected office. He was a terrible campaigner, and also went around running a poorly managed shoestrap campaign. He wasn't very clever, and his political skills were mediocre. Between the two of them, Santorum and Gingrich forced Romney, who had a clearer establishment backing than I think Christie will have, to spent nearly 100 million dollars and six months of campaigning just to secure the Republican primary.

        Christie may be slightly better than Santorum or Gingrich. But Ted Cruz is far above either of them. Sure, he is a meglomanical (even by the standards of ambitious politicians), asshole who rubs the wrong way just about everyone who has to be in close contact with him or work with him, but he's a brilliant debater who will eat Christie alive, and he's an extremely smart politician who knows how to appeal to the Republican base, including many more white collar suburban types than Tea Party campaigns typically reach. Cruz is going to have ten or fifteen times the resources that Santorum and Gingrich had combined, and Christie will not have as much of a money advantage as Cruz.

        Christie's personality is just wrong as well. I mean look at past Presidents.

        Obama - Laid back and professrial, inspirational narrative
        Bush - slightly doofish everyman
        Clinton - Charming, charismatic everyman
        Bush Sr - Technocrat and elder statesman
        Reagan - Funny, charismatic everyman

        I think Christie is still a big longshot in the Republican primary. If Scott Brown runs and also starts siphoning off moderates in Iowa and New Hampshire, well, Christie's window to get early momentum gets even narrower.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 10:49:21 AM PST

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        •  Christie will have plenty of money.... (0+ / 0-)

          The entire GOP establishment, chamber of commerce, etc. will be on his side in the race, since he's perceived to be the most electable.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 11:02:37 AM PST

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          •  Talking about who will have money/wont have it (4+ / 0-)

            is sort of moot since everybody will have their personal sugar daddies in the primary again. If Christie has the Chamber of Commerce, Cruz will have AFP & Freedomworks, Paul will have his father's legion of deadenders, and Sheldon Adelson will buy somebody else (doesn't really matter who, so long as it keeps him out of federal prison and doesnt interfere with his gambling "enterprise")

          •  Definitely (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, James Allen

            But his campaign finances will have to be judged in relation to those of his opponents.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 11:43:17 AM PST

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      •  By which measures do you consider (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Christie stronger than Romney? This is not rhetorical incidentally.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 11:39:41 AM PST

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        •  Clearly more conservative... (6+ / 0-)

          ...during his actual Governorship, not just later as convenient.

          His overall persona also is sincere.

          Sincerity in politics and person right away make him stronger.

          And that he's clearly more conservative a Governor than Mitt was makes him ideologically stronger.  That Christie himself is from a blue state undercuts the notion that you have to be as liberal as Mitt pretended to be.

          I don't agree with LordMike above on financial strength, I think that's wait-and-see.  Mitt could self-fund if needed, and when he didn't need it, he could raise plenty enough from others.

          But my points above on other things establish my argument.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 12:14:06 PM PST

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          •  Okay that makes sense (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, wadingo

            I was thinking more about the national polls. The most recent I can find is from PPP with Christie at 15% which is basically a five-way tie with Rand, Cruz, Jeb and someone else. Romney was consistently over 20% at a comparable point.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 12:19:29 PM PST

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            •  All polling now is a throwaway (0+ / 0-)

              The polling is worthless, whether national or in states.

              I look at fundamental strengths and weaknesses.  Polling won't matter until the last month before Iowa.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 05:36:17 PM PST

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        •  well, he's more of an everyday man than Romney (0+ / 0-)

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