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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 11/18 (289 comments)

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  •  Excellent point (1+ / 0-)
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    SaoMagnifico

    And as always, thanks for the statistics. They really put things into context.

    And one thing I'd look out for is Luz Roble's affect in this and other districts. She's of course the Dem running for UT-02, a great fundraiser, and it's very possible that her running as a serious candidate for UT-02 could buoy up other Hispanic candidates in the state.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 08:02:22 PM PST

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    •  No Democrat running for UT-02 (1+ / 0-)
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      jncca

      is a "serious candidate".

      They may make a valiant effort, but we shouldn't be entertaining them as serious candidacies.

      Furthermore, she won't be a great fundraiser (at least in this race) because Matheson will be sucking up all the local money for his race (which will always be competitive, at least at the outset) and because other Democrats in actually competitive races will be getting the PAC money as well as all major funders of Democratic campaigns. There will simply be nothing left for her after that. I doubt she raises more than $200 grand, if she even raises that.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 09:05:13 PM PST

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      •  Let me put it this way (0+ / 0-)

        She's as serious as a UT-02 Dem candidate is going to get. She's certainly going to do better than Jay Seegmiller, the Dem candidate in 2012 (who barely tried, getting only 33%).

        Besides, she's A) got a sizable chunk of Salt Lake City in her district and could wring out a ton of votes from there unlike the lackluster Seegmiller. And B) She'd have a totally different source of fundraising from Matheson; he doesn't have the resources of the smallish but devoted Hispanic community on his side. And that Hispanic community that is excited by Robles is likely to donate to other Hispanic candidates. Sure, Matheson does get Hispanic votes, but he doesn't get the devotion of the Utah Hispanic community.

        Oh, and within the first month of annoucing, Robles got $50,000 in donations, mostly from Hispanic politicians and voters. Is that the sign of a weak fundraiser?

        Look, did I suggest Robles would win? No, and I never have (though I'm explained that if a Dem candidate in UT-02 could win, it would be Robles). I merely meant that she was as serious as we're going to get here. I probably should have explained that. But that's no reason to be rude.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 09:30:10 PM PST

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        •  50,000 in a quarter is /bad/ (1+ / 0-)
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          Gygaxian

          That's what's called the "low hanging fruit". It won't get better from here (with only four quarters left).

          I wasn't meaning to be rude, but I can see how it came across that way. Apologies.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 09:37:27 PM PST

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          •  Again, it's good considering the district (0+ / 0-)

            And again, I'm not assuming that Robles will win; I'm just saying that for the rising Hispanic community within Utah, she's an exciting candidate, and that support will make her as serious a candidate as a UT-02 Dem can be, and I feel like that excitement will bleed over to legislative districts nearby (or in) UT-02.

            Also, the $50,000 is in a month, not a quarter. (unless they're the same thing; I'm not quite sure on business terms). Also, 2012 nominee Jay Seegmiller raised $55,892 for the entire cycle, so you can see how it would be a stark difference in fundraising, no?

            And it's no problem; I'm just very protective of Utah Dems, and I don't like when they're not respected or treated serious (which admittedly, many of the legislative candidates only have a presence on the ballot).

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 09:47:35 PM PST

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            •  quarter = 3 months (2+ / 0-)
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              Gygaxian, wwmiv

              $50,000 in a month isn't bad. Wasn't there an item in the digest just last week saying that in a house race,  much more than a few hundred thousand is of questionable utility? If she's already raised $50,000 in just her first month, she could raise enough to wage an otherwise serious campaign. Her problem is mainly just that she's in an impossible district.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Nov 18, 2013 at 10:21:57 PM PST

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