#### Comment Preferences

• ##### if this is the case(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
WisVoter
As an illustration: If the number of actual enrollments doubles each month, that would be 100K + 200K + 400K + 800K + 1.6M + 3.2M = 6.3 million people by 3/31/14, very close to the 7 million goal.
That'd be 700K people by the end of the year. Doesn't that mean than on January 1st, that there would be millions of people with cancelled insurance there were unable to get new coverage in the exchanges?
• ##### Fair point. My point is simply...(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Fury, ArcticStones, WisVoter, rsmpdx

...that the 106K figure shouldn't induce panic, given the Massachusetts example as a guideline.

• ##### how long was the(0+ / 0-)

Massachusetts sign-up period?

• ##### i just found something that(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Brainwrap, CoyoteMarti

said 12 months before the penalty. In the ACA, it is only 6 month till the penalty, and three months until a lapse in coverage.

So i don't think that looking 12 months back is a good comparison.

you said "by the 4th month it was up to 15,500." and according to the link below 36,167 were signed up by month eleven.

http://www.newrepublic.com/...

So 42% of the people were signed up when there were still more than 7 months before any penalties. By comparison, 2% of the people have signed up for the ACA 5 months before any penalties (2 months before a lapse in coverage)

• ##### Again, fair point (and thanks for finding that...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
WisVoter

...article/chart; I've been looking for it.

So, in their case, it was:

1 Month In: 123 (0.3%)
2 Months In: 2,289 (6.3%)
4 months in: 15,500 (42.8%)
11 months in: 36,167

• ##### yes(0+ / 0-)

but i think the better way to compare would be 'months before deadline' rather than 'months in'

Of course with the ACA there are 2 diferent deadlines. December to have coverage in January and March to avoid the penalties.

this article has 80% enrollment a month before the penalty kicked in

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Even your doubling scenario has only 50% enrollment a month before the penalty.

• ##### Those people could cause a surge in enrollments(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
TofG, gmats

A lot of those people losing their insurance are going to go to the exchanges, because they need new insurance.  I think we could see a huge, and unexpected surge from these people when they realize they can get better and cheaper policies on the exchanges.  If the website can handle them, we may have some surprising numbers by Dec. 15.

• ##### But...but CNN (and Politoco on Bill Press radio(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Brainwrap, pollwatcher

show) say ACA is a roll out DIASTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They gots to have negative scenarios. Omg, what if the website IS getting fixed! That would be a disaster of Biblical proportions for them.

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