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View Diary: The sudden (and somewhat premature) pundit obsession with 2010 (125 comments)

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  •  Definitely too premature right now (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Phoenix Woman, MetroGnome, LordMike

    I certainly think Dems took a hit from the Obamacare rollout, but CNN, Quinnipiac, and Fox are showing an 11pt decline in the Generic Congressional Ballot within the span of weeks.  Not only does that just seem unrealistic, it seems like that has as little sticking power to it that our D+8 polls were.  

    Ultimately, we will not have a clear picture of what this race is going to be like until at least early Spring of next year.  2010 wasn't starting to look ugly for us until at least that point in time, and there are a number of things that could easily make or break the race in the interim for either side.  Tea Party members smelling blood in the water, for instance, could end up shutting down the government again, in which case that could wind up being a litmus test for the GOP primaries that plays into point 3 in the diary.  That would also screw them in them in the general.  Obamacare's rollout could also wind up being a lot worse than we expected, in which case we could also be looking at a cycle that would make 2010 look tame.  

    The polls are bouncing way too much, and not enough candidates for either side have declared, for anyone to be figuring out control of the Senate next year.  Come next year, though, if we start seeing one party consistently trail in the aggregated GCB for at least one or 2 months, I imagine that would be a difficult thing for the other party to overcome, although the Senate is definitely far more difficult to predict than the House (just look at Nate Silver's predictions the last 3 cycles).

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