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View Diary: Update x2: ACA Enrollments hit 390K; 29,000 on Sun-Mon alone! (40 comments)

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  •  It is extremely difficult to appreciate (8+ / 0-)

    the effects of exponential growth without extensive practice, as I know from my own experience in technology market analysis. Everybody, including me, got the Moore's Law effects on computer speed, capacity, price, and numbers sold wrong early on, partly because nobody could believe that it would continue for so long. Eventually, I got the hang of it. We have been through 30 doublings so far, from the first two-transistor integrated circuit to billions today.

    In population statistics, early exponential growth always gives way to the logistic curve, which starts to level off when the target population is more than 50% entrained. We hope that that will happen later in 2014, after the initial signup period.

    We know that on various exchange Web sites, state and Federal, November signups were 2-4 times as high as October. Doubling again (or better) in December would allow us to coast to victory by the end of March.

    In actual numbers, the chart here shows a tripling from about 300,000 in October to more than a million added in November. One more doubling to two million a month (about 66,000 a day) would do it. I am quite confident that this will happen, for several reasons. The continuing improvements in Web sites and other processes count as one reason. Improved outreach is another, and then there is the looming first deadline.

    Ceterem censeo, gerrymandra delenda est

    by Mokurai on Wed Dec 04, 2013 at 09:14:06 AM PST

    •  Actually, the numbers are from 100K in October (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Denver11, sulthernao, WisVoter, rsmpdx about 400K in November, if you're talking about private enrollments only, which is where the "7 million" number comes from.

      Your larger point is correct, however--that's a QUADRUPLING from Oct. to Nov.

      7 million is doable.

    •  Right, we expect logistic growth (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap, WisVoter

      Logistic growth follows the S-curve brainwrap mentions in the update. But we don't have enough datapoints to fit the logistic curve. We don't even have all the data for November yet.

      And as brainwrap mentions, we should expect a logistic tapering off at the end of 2013, and a second logistic tapering off in March. IIRC, that's exactly what was seen in Massachusetts.

      But the linear projection is probably about as good as we can get right now with our limited data.

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