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View Diary: Mapping and analyzing the Virginia 2013 statewide elections by county (40 comments)

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  •  how did the swing precinct in NoVa do? (0+ / 0-)

    i saw something in the washington post that there is some
    swing district in NoVa (Loudon or PW) that's been the bellwether district for 30 years?

    do you know what i mean?

    •  I didn't look at the precinct level (0+ / 0-)

      and while I'm not familiar which which particular precinct you're talking about, I would imagine it's still trended Democratic over that same 30 years as nearly the entire region has become much more Dem friendly.

    •  Both PW and Loudoun have been bellwether districts (1+ / 0-)
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      Though not for 30 years. PW has voted for 17 statewide winners straight, while Loudoun has voted for 15 of the last 16 statewide winners, including the last 5 in 12/13.

      One interesting takeaway from these maps is that PW voted for Obama at a higher percentage than all three of the Dems this year, while the inverse is true for Loudoun. So they both voted Obama, and they both voted McAuliffe-Northam-Herring, but PW had tighter races this year, while Loudoun had larger margins percentage-wise.

      For reference, look at maps 2, 4, and 6. These are the maps that show the 2013 statewide candidate share minus the Obama share. You'll see Loudoun near the very top of the map, with its northern border creating state lines with MD and WV. It looks like a square that has had a bite taken out of it. Fairfax share the eastern border, and PW shares a border with both Fairfax and Loudoun along the south and to the Chesapeake. In 2, 4, and 6 Loudoun is bluish while PW is reddish, which illustrates the point I mentioned above.

      PW is 53% People of Color, while Loudoun is just 40%. It's unlikely Mark Warner loses either of these counties in 2014, but it will be interesting to see if PW goes more blue because its a Presidential - thus sparking a higher turnout among POC - or if this is an indication that PW is feeling the negative effects of restrictive voter ID laws more acutely, in which case 2016 could be at least as bad if those laws are not overturned.

      Run for office. It's fun! Look at the fun we're having!

      by Alfonso Nevarez on Wed Dec 18, 2013 at 01:32:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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