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View Diary: MAJOR UPDATE x4: Here Comes the Boom! ACA up to either 900K (or possibly 1.3M)!! (165 comments)

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  •  On the age breakdown... (13+ / 0-)

    ...much of what I've been reading suggests that 40% of enrollees on the exchanges need to be young and healthy. However, the Huffington Post had an article yesterday suggesting that even if the percentage is lower, things are still likely to work out OK. Here's the key quote:

    According to the Kaiser report, if 25 percent of enrollees are age 18-34 next year, insurers would have to raise premiums by just 2.4 percent in 2015 to cover the shortfall.
    •  And if 33% are that age premiums (8+ / 0-)

      will only have to go up by one percent.

      Steve Gilliard Lives.

      by Bethesda 1971 on Wed Dec 18, 2013 at 08:56:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What about if they're 18-34 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ybruti, Inland

      and have preexisting conditions? A young woman I know who is signing up is half my age but I'm healthier.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it.

      by anastasia p on Wed Dec 18, 2013 at 10:40:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  NBC reports (7+ / 0-)

      that in Kentucky, 41% are under 35. That makes me worry about the 50-64-year-olds, but the actuaries have gotta love it.

      Here in RI as of the end of November it was running about 20% ages 18-34, 40% ages 55-64 -- but then RI's population skews toward older, and I suspect this may also reflect who is out of work or severely underemployed and needs insurance the worst. Or maybe younger people procrastinate more?

    •  Age Distribution Not a Real Issue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Brainwrap, Cardinal Fang

      Here is the original Kaiser Report for additional details:

      The Kaiser Report certainly suggests that the age distribution will probably have little effect on premiums and almost certainly will not cause a death spiral since the ACA basically largely accounts for increased risk for older individuals already. These increases in premiums that we hear about are largely caused by the fact that the ACA only permits a 3 to 1 increase in premiums for older applicants compared to young applicants.  This 3 to 1 ratio can successfully model the expected health premium increase as a function of age until your late fifties after which it rises to 5 to 1 in your early sixties.  Therefore, the young do subsidize people in their sixties but the overall effect on the system is fairly small.  Therefore, the effect of the age distribution is also fairly small (one percent to a few percent) and certainly not capable of collapsing the system.  Interesting to see how our news media totally misrepresents this.  Guess news reporters got to do that in order to increase circulation in order to advance themselves in that industry.  

      The larger concern is the distribution of healthy to unhealthy individuals versus insurance company estimates.  But generally this will probably not be a problem if we get a lot of people signing up, which current numbers show we now are, since this should provide us with a wide selection of individuals with varying health risks.    

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