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View Diary: Federal judge strikes down Utah's gay marriage ban (142 comments)

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  •  i suppose that way the SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

    could wind up writing a 'likelihood of success' opinion before the COA does in one of those scenarios, but not one with a precedential effect that would strike the laws in other states.

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Fri Dec 20, 2013 at 02:53:13 PM PST

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    •  I'd guess such an opinion is unlikely (0+ / 0-)

      The most encouraging outcome would be if the stay application is referred to the entire court and denied, which would hint that 5 or 6 justices think the plaintiffs will prevail.  In that case, I think there is likely to be nothing substantive in the majority's transmission of its denial.  There might be an angry dissenting opinion.

      But, it's also possible that Kennedy and Roberts, even if they might ultimately vote for a ruling in plaintiffs' favor at the SCOTUS, would join the three obvious marriage-equality opponents and vote in favor of a stay until after the appellate courts decide on the merits.

      •  i agree it's unlikely (0+ / 0-)

        my guess is it won't happen until there's a circuit split -- why do any four justices vote for cert on a merits appeal unless they are sure of the 5th, and how can you be if it's Kennedy?  At the same time, the federalism implications here go beyond Perry -- a referendum overturning a state supreme court ruling is different from a federal judge overturning a legislature.

        Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

        by Loge on Fri Dec 20, 2013 at 03:06:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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