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View Diary: CO-3, CO-6, NM-02 Part Three of How the West was Won -- House Elections Edition (56 comments)

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  •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

    Do you happen to know off-hand what the NM-02 turnout levels tend to be for midterms and presidentials? If it's quite low even for majority-hispanic districts, that means there's an opportunity for voter registration drives.

    If I remember southern NM right, there are a lot of military-type installations of the kind that make Colorado's house districts so maddeningly stubborn to turn. That could complicate efforts to turn the district blue. Still, if Rocky Lara is as good a candidate as you say, I have hope.

    •  Really low (0+ / 0-)

      and not just because of CVAP.  2010 votes cast (for a competitve race with a Dem incumbent) in NM02 were just 169,762 so probably about 35% of the eligible population.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sun Dec 22, 2013 at 08:11:19 PM PST

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      •  Tiny.. too tiny (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        There's so much room for improvement. That district should be several points in the D direction per PVI, rather than R+5 as it currently stands. Definitely a pickup opportunity with good GOTV efforts (difficult in midterms, true, but it happened in 2006).

        Thanks for your diaries on this subject.

      •  Lara contributor here (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        benamery21, lissablack

        Although my zip code indicates NM-2,  my actual residence, 5 miles from my local post office, is just over the County line into NM-3.   So I can't vote for her but I can encourage my mostly Hispanic neighbors to turn out.  

        I am surprised to hear that NM-2 has the highest percentage of Hispanic voters of the 3, as the perception is easily that eastern NM is culturally a part of West Texas in some ways; ranching and  extraction are the two main industries.

        The difference with Hispanics in New Mexico as opposed to Hispanics anywhere else is that New Mexico has ALWAYS been Hispanic home turf;  they are walking around on the  home turf they have had for over 400 years since they moved in on the Natives 1n 1598  without feeling the need to exterminate them.  More productive to breed with them,  and consequently  pure-blood Native or Hispanic (White European immigrants from Spain 400 years ago) blood is actually very rare.  This is especially true in the Pueblo cultures, where one often hears of a Governor or other official of the Pueblo having an apparently Hispanic surname despite holding full tribal membership.

        It is safe to say that many Hispanics are clannish and will vote for Hispanics on principle,  which is part of the reason we have a Republican Governor (Susana Martinez) at the (hopefully brief) moment.

        Lara should be able to rouse the Hispanic voters, but they are either concentrated around Las Cruces or scattered all over the rural areas in enclaves such as the one I live in, one of the old Spanish-Mexican Land Grants.

        Lara will be something of a Blue Dog,  as her bread is probably buttered some by the extractive industries.  Her (unmentioned) primary opponent is Leslie Endean-Singh, a political newcomer from Alamogordo who is likely more progressive but has less of a base to be working from.

        don't always believe what you think

        by claude on Wed Dec 25, 2013 at 12:04:23 PM PST

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        •  I actually did mention Endean-Singh (0+ / 0-)

          I contrast their fundraising and political endorsements.  I do not expect the primary to present Lara much difficulty.

          It's an R+5 district, I have seen Lara quoted talking about an all of the above strategy on energy and would concur that she is not likely to be a strong critic of oil and gas, nuclear, or potash mining.  Of course, Teague was an oil and gas man, too.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed Dec 25, 2013 at 12:45:28 PM PST

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