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View Diary: Update x2: ACA Signups: 1.7 Million Private, 5.6M Total & Moving Fast!! (112 comments)

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  •  A cheer and a naysay/question (0+ / 0-)

    The cheer:  The enrollments are clearly exploding.  And if I read the chart correctly, there should be lots of enrollments that are not yet included, since a number of states have not updated their numbers in a while.

    The naysay/question:  The CBO projection of 7 million privately insured by 3/31/14 is only a fraction of the uninsured population.  I look at the individual states and I see that some states are only projected to enroll 10% of their uninsured population by 3/31.  For Hawaii, it is something like 8%.  So even if we hit the CBO numbers, it is something less than a great victory.  

    If someone could explain to me why the projection is so low, I'd appreciate it.  I understand that some people just aren't following this and may not be aware of ACA or the exchanges and some may prefer to pay the penalty, but the projection still seems ridiculously low.  

    •  If the question is "how many people are COVERED (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jrand, TXdem, ruellia, raines

      ...who weren't previously", the answer is actually around 8.75 million.

      1.73M private plans

      3.92M Medicaid/SCHIP expansion

      3.1M young adults on their parents plan thanks to ACA

      The "7M" projection was only for private plans in the first year; it doesn't include either Medicaid, SCHIP or the Under 26ers.

      Does that help?

      •  Except not all of the enrollments (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rsmpdx

        are from previously uninsured people. Plenty of people on this site report that they have signed up on the exchange, and their insurance is better than their previous insurance, which implies that they had previous insurance.

    •  Well, it's a lot more complete than it was a few (4+ / 0-)

      ...hours ago, but yes, all 50 states are at least 1-2 days behind, and a couple are up to a week behind. D.C, in particular, is surreal--it hasn't been updated since November 15, even in the HHS report! No idea WTF is going on there.

    •  Because it takes a while to penetrate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sharman, bobatkinson, askew

      It took Massachusetts I think two years to get to 96% insured.

      And remember there are large swaths of people who aren't eligible -- including immigrants (at least those without green cards), people in prison, and people who fall in the Medicaid gap.

      So yes, the projections/goals are a small portion of the uninsured population -- here in RI, I think the estimate of uninsured was 120,000 (12% of the population), and the 3/31/14 CBO projection is 12,000 or 10% of that.

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