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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Tuesday open thread: VA SD-06 and legislative specials in GA, IA, MA, and VA (168 comments)

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  •  Is (2+ / 0-)
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    Gordon20024, jj32

    VA HD-11 vulnerable? Johnson seems like a decent candidate. Anybody know?

    •  It doesn't look like it's safe (1+ / 0-)
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      Specials are very difficult to predict, but the GOP seems excited about Johnson.  We'll know in a little bit, but it's at the very least worth keeping an eye on.  

      Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

      by Jeff Singer on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:14:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Local media (Roanoke) report heavy spending (1+ / 0-)
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      on the part of the Republicans in support of Johnson. On paper she seems to be a decent and intelligent person. She must not play well with others or something. She lacks warmth and personal friends vouching for her.

      Voter turn out is extremely low according to CBS affiliate WDBJ. One poll worker they interviewed said it's likely only 430 people will vote today. Polls close 7pm.

      Weather was bitterly cold this morning, around 8 above but with little to no wind. It's currently 20 and calm.

      What, sir, would the people of the earth be without woman? They would be scarce, sir, almighty scarce. Mark Twain

      by Gordon20024 on Tue Jan 07, 2014 at 03:27:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bill Howell has been pouring money into the seat (1+ / 0-)
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      He doesn't usually spend like this unless he thinks he can pick up a seat. Last time he did was when he put $100k into HD-12 (along with the RPV's $150k) to elect Joseph Yost in 2011.

      I think it's going to be close, but Rasoul is still the favorite unless Johnson gets the black vote to cross over for her. She managed about 20-25% of the vote in the city's heavily-black precincts last year, precincts that normally give the Republican about 5% of the vote. Add to that the Republican smear campaign against Rasoul (he's a scary Muslim, you know) and an upset is not out of the question.

      From what I've heard she's not really campaigning, just letting the Republicans spend money on her behalf. It works sometimes; Bill Barlow lost HD-64 when the Republicans spent heavily against him, even as the Republican candidate hid from the voters. Granted, that's a much more conservative district, but it happens.

      •  Didnt have a R next to her name last time (0+ / 0-)

        Roanoke Sheriff while technically partisan, doesn't list party on the ballot. I dont think she will be able to hold onto the African American support she had now that she is listed as a Republican.

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
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        Barlow is a relative of mine. He didn't want to be re-elected in my opinion. I think he got pressure from Richmond to run again. But it proves a point. Just letting the party spend isn't necessarily gonna cut it.

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