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View Diary: ACA Updates: KY, MN, MA*, OR and a feature story in the LA Times! (74 comments)

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  •  Insurance Cancellations (2+ / 0-)

    The story on cancelled policies is a bit convoluted and our media, unfortunately, is incapable of handling anything that might require a bit of analysis and analytical thought.  Consequently, they are largely incapable of reporting anything other than that which has been clearly spelled out for them which is why this Website is so valuable since it tends to spell out everything for them in great detail.

    The original CBO report shown below

    never stated that 7 million people would be added to the private insurance market in total but instead stated that 7 million people would acquire their insurance through the exchanges while the non-group market would decrease by 2 million people for a net gain of 5 million people.  That two million people would be due to a certain fraction of the people in the non-group market transferring their policies to the new healthcare exchanges (particularly those who could get a much better deal on the exchanges by getting subsidies) and a certain fraction who might drop their policies simply because they were previously buying junk policies on the non-group market and therefore paying really low premiums and might not want to shell out for a better policy under any conditions (e.g. people who get short term policies who can get exceptionally low rates but who can be readily terminated after a few to several months if they develop any type of pre-existing condition) with this loss in the non-group market reduced by a certain fraction of the previously uninsured who are not getting subsidies who most likely would move into the non-group market in order to have a larger choice of plans so they could get a better deal on their health insurance.  

    I personally do not know the exact details of this analysis and I suspect nobody outside of the CBO knows the exact details of what went into this final number.  Nonetheless, if you were to do a back of the envelope calculation 2 million would appear to be a reasonable estimate.

    Now this 2 million number will actually end up being much smaller than this in in the final analysis since Obama has allowed many of the states to retain these non-group policies for another year and he is also permitting people of all ages to apply for catastrophic coverage and not just people under 30.  So this 2 million will probably ultimately drop to much less than a million people by the time all of these changes are incorporated into these healthcare regulations.  

    The issue here is that the Republicans will distort and twist virtually anything to accomplish their political agenda even if  the conclusion that you would normally reach from a certain set of data is exceedingly clear.  In this instance, it takes quite a bit of analysis to get to the final answer with an associated amount of assumptions and ambiguity so the very far right is using this to make extremely outrageous claims about these cancelled policies in order to achieve their political ends.  Furthermore, our mainstream media appears totally incapable of coming to any sort of reasonable conclusion about anything that might actually require some analytical thought and so are simply parroting this highly disingenuous talking point to appear evenhanded when in reality they are simply acting as an enabler for the sort of duplicity for which the Republican Party is famous.

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