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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/9 (477 comments)

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  •  Wow! WATN and news re OR-01 (5+ / 0-)

    Former Congresswoman Elizabeth Furse will challenge Washington County Commissioner Bob Terry, who represents Hillsboro, Forest Grove, Cornelius, and much of rural WashCo.

    Furse said her potential victory could change the dynamics on the Board of Commissioners. In past months, commissioners have voted unanimously on almost all the issues that came before the board. But Furse said the board is split between Terry, Commissioner Roy Rogers and Chairman Andy Duyck on one side, and commissioners Greg Malinowski and Dick Schouten on the other side.
    Absolutely. But that's a big reason, along with her views expressed in the article, why I find it unlikely she'll win. It's possibly the most conservative district in the county (I haven't run the numbers on them) yet she has a message I would expect from the most liberal (for limiting development, more social services, etc.). Still, this is a big development. I think I'd prefer it if she ran against the chair, since she'd be running countywide and get the chance to win more votes out of the Tigard and Beaverton areas, and he'll be up next year too, but I guess I'll take what I can get.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 06:25:59 AM PST

    •  to give you an idea of that (0+ / 0-)

      last year Obama got 59.01% of the two party vote in Washington County, but only 53.55% in this commission district. That's the reason I'd rather she were running for county chair. Also many of the most Democratic areas in the commission district, like Cornelius and certain areas of Hillsboro are heavily nonwhite and I expect tougher turnout this year.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 06:54:22 AM PST

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      •  tentative numbers (some split precincts) (0+ / 0-)

        WashCo: 59.01% Obama

        district 1: 62.76% Obama (Beaverton/Aloha area)
        district 2: 63.6% (Beaverton area)
        district 3: 56.21% (Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood areas)
        district 4: 53.55%

        guess which two are held by the more progressive commissioners.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 07:23:24 AM PST

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        •  Why is district 4 (0+ / 0-)

          so Republican? Hillsboro is more than half the district (since Hillsboro has 100K people and the district is less than 200k) and Hillsboro voted 60% for Obama in 2008. Surely that should be enough to elect a Dem commissioner?

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 08:08:22 AM PST

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          •  in a midterm? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            As I said above, many of the more Dem areas are heavily nonwhite and likely to see significant drop-off in turnout this fall. Also, it looks like it lacks a couple heavily Dem precincts from Hillsboro, too. As well, that district has nearly all the rural precincts in the county.

            Hillsboro went for Obama with almost 59% in 2012. It's trending Democratic, but its ancestrally Republican. We didn't pick up the house district with most of the city until 2006 and lost it again in 2010. We still haven't picked up the senate district, though we came fairly close in 2010 and if it were up in presidential years would almost certainly have won it. Hell, all of Washington County is ancestrally Republican. Until the 1990s it was one of the most traditionally Republican counties in the state. In 2010 County Chair Duyck, a really archconservative guy, was easily elected county chair.

            These elections are also nonpartisan, so voters don't know the party of the candidate. And since I haven't had access to the voterfile in a few years, neither do I.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 08:19:21 AM PST

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        •  for the sake of accuracy (0+ / 0-)

          looks like I'm still missing a precinct or two, but now I have 1 at 62.84 and 2 at 63.96.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 09:08:18 AM PST

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    •  Wow, this is a BFD (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      She'll certainly have name rec, if nothing else.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 07:31:23 AM PST

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    •  Well, this should help gin turnout (0+ / 0-)

      for other downballot races as well, including against Bruce Starr.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 09, 2014 at 02:17:16 PM PST

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