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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/13 (369 comments)

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  •  Keep in mind that the beltway media (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, DCCyclone

    ...considers Gillespie to be one of their own, since he was a former major party national chairman not named Howard Dean, so it's not surprising at all to see them cheerleading for Gillespie.

    I'll predict that WI-Gov will be the closest major statewide contest this year, in fact, I think the winner of that race will win with less than 50%+1 of the vote.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:38:04 AM PST

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    •  Gillespie is the only possible candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      with any chance of making the race competitive, and that is based solely on his ability to raise money.

      All other potential candidates are nobodies.

      It's not so much they're Gillespie cheerleaders as they are just wanting something to write about.

      •  But if EW Jackson runs, he's in jeopardy (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, wadingo, gabjoh

        as they're holding the convention in Roanoake, far away from Gillespie's comfort zone.

        "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:02:30 AM PST

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      •  You can bribe the media these days... (0+ / 0-)

        ...if you're A) a wealthy person who can self-fund a significant portion of a campaign war chest and/or B) can raise a ton of money from campaign donors, and it's completely legal.

        There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:08:07 AM PST

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        •  The media is in the business of selling (5+ / 0-)

          Ads or copies, they are a business. All of the other potential candidates are nobodies who will do neither. They need something to print. Gillespie may give it to them. After the initial OMG EW JACKSON stories, most of which were already played out in the Lt gov race, there is no need to write about the Virginia Senate race again. They need 2 candidates that are at least plausible. Gillespie is, as least on paper.

      •  No, I think you're sorely mistaken (0+ / 0-)

        A better candidate with a record of public service who raises significantly less money than Gillespie would perform better against Warner.

        Candidates matter more than money.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:53:58 PM PST

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    •  There'll be a bunch of major statewide races (0+ / 0-)

      where no candidate gets 50%. Certainly, if Cutler stays in, the winner of ME-Gov will get less than 50%. Also, with the new pro-third-party rules in Ohio, I wouldn't be surprised if no one in OH-Gov got 50%.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:19:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Kasich is under 50 (0+ / 0-)

        unless he's barely winning like in 2010. Libertarians/Greens/etc don't typically do as well in Ohio as they do in neighboring states such as Indiana.

        It's also possible that Michaud clears 50. He's very popular, LePage is loathed, and many people don't have an opinion about Cutler. I also expect Cutler to fade away to maybe 10-15% at best as Democrats come home to their nominee. The only reason he did so well in 2010 was because Libby Mitchell was despised.

        •  A few things about ME-Gov (8+ / 0-)

          Michaud will only clear 50% if Cutler fades severely (and I think it's an open question whether he will or not). Remember, Maine has a long tradition of embracing and voting for independent candidates, and in fact no Governor of Maine has gotten an absolute majority since the 1998 re-election of... wait for it... Angus King.

          My hunch is that LePage's numbers are not going to change significantly. He's always had between 35 and 40 percent of the state supporting him, no more, no less. He got 39 percent in 2010, and polls show him in the mid-to-high 30s. His ceiling seems to be about 40 percent, and thus, since other independents will get around 3 percent, Michaud has to keep Cutler under 17 percent in order to win. Therefore, Michaud may have to push Cutler into the single digits to get an absolute majority, and while not impossible, I think the odds of that are relatively low.

          My best guess for now is Michaud 44, LePage 38, Cutler 15, Other 3.

          (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

          by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:16:19 PM PST

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    •  For once DownstateDemocrat nails it (4+ / 0-)

      "...the beltway media considers Gillespie to be one of their own."

      BINGO times 20!!!

      He's one of their family.

      That's why they tout him, and are delusional about how competitive he can be.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:55:15 PM PST

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