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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Longtime California Rep. George Miller will retire (40 comments)

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  •  Well, here it's really possible)))) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell, Aquarius40, randallt

    But how much D+17 (or higher) districts Democrats have?

    •  Massachusetts PVI is D+10 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      randallt

      There are 115 seats D+10 or better, which means Warren's positions could be roughly at the center of a 230 seat Democratic House majority caucus.

      There are 70 D+17 or better seats as of 2014.
      This PVI means there is basically no risk of losing this seat to the right, but California's jungle primary system means moving the seat much to the left of the median voter in the district might be hard.  

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:14:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know that))) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        randallt

        It was a sort of irony on my part. The problem is that 70 (or even 115) Representatives can do almost nothing when there are about 230 Representatives who doesn't want to accept even a small part of their program (as it's now). And i don't expect to live long enough to see 218 Progressives in House..

        •  You don't need 218 Progressives (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          randallt, Woody

          to implement a progressive agenda.  You do need progressives in D+10 sets and moderate Democrats in R+5 seats.  People in R+5 seats voted for carbon controls, universal healthcare, higher minimum wages, the DREAM Act, student loan interest rate reduction, etc.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 04:32:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In R+5 seats (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Aquarius40, randallt, JGibson

            you NOW can elect only Blue Dogs or Republicans, not moderate "New Democrats".  I already mentioned my criterion: D+5 or "above" districts - for progressives, D+4 - R+4 - for moderates, R+5 or "below" - for Blue Dogs and conservatives. There are some exceptions almost in every category, but reality more and more resembles it. And there are more R+5 or "below" districts then D+5 or "above"- one of the reason for Republican majority in House

            •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              benamery21

              See N Rahall, see J Tester, see more people.

              •  Nick Rahall (0+ / 0-)

                is THE only one in R+5 or more districts (in House), who is NOT a Blue Dog. But his voting records tilted right in last couple of years and he is a much more vulnerable now then in first 30 years of his service. I will not be surprised if he loses in 2014. All other, who represent such districts (Matheson, McIntyre, Barrow and Peterson) are among bluest of Blue Dogs now. And i spoke only about House, Senate has it's own rules, though they are generally similar...

                •  well (0+ / 0-)

                  1 of 5 is a 20%, 1 of 3 is a 33%, in both cases it is not a 0%, then a no-Blue Dog can win in a R+5 or worse district

                  why are you ignoring his case when he has the best voting record, and the longest serving time of all them?

                  also in the senate are more cases, and also in some statewide offices that break your comment of only Blue Dogs winning R+5 or worse constituencies

                  •  I said that i spoke about House (0+ / 0-)

                    But tell me a Senator from really red state, who has a reliable seat? Landrieu? Surely not. Pryor? No. Begich? No. Donnelly? No, McCaskill? No Heitkamp? No. Johnson? No. May be only Manchin, who IS a Blue Dog and i am not sure about his reelection chances either. And you list Rahall as "1 of 3". What if he loses, and it will be 0 of 2? Among present governors the only one who would absolutely be reelected is Beebe in Arkansas, and he would be Blue Dog, serving in Congress, too... Not so sure about Beshear.

                    •  the idea of a reliable seat in R+5+ (0+ / 0-)

                      is so obsolete at this point, for federal offices. Even J Manchin's approvals have dropped significantly.

                      Your previous comment excluded the idea of no-Blue Dogs being elected and this is not the case. One is enough to break the rule, but there are more in the senate and in statewide offices.

                      Also I want to remember that the voting record of J Manchin in the senate is better than the record of J Costa and H Cuellar (blue dogs in D+7 districts) according to the score of progressive punch.

            •  Really not my point (0+ / 0-)

              I'm not quibbling about terminology here, I don't care what you call them, run the most progressive candidate who can win in that district, even if they are Blue Dog's, while working to move the district to the left (GOTV, Registration, Naturalization, etc).  

              My point is that electing corporatist Democrats in D+17 seats has a deleterious effect on a progressive agenda.  If we have a progressive majority in the caucus, and a Democratic majority in the House, we will have a somewhat progressive agenda in the House.  

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 06:05:39 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not sure (0+ / 0-)

                Yes, in situation you describe, progressive legislation will get better chances of getting to the floor. But what next? You will not (obviously) get a single Republican voting for it and some (may be - relatively considerable number) of Democrats (non-progressives, so to say) may defect. How will you pass this progressive legislation?????

                A question: the"most progressive candidate" able to win NC-07 (i will not even speak about TX-13 here) is ....??????

                •  NC-07 is R+12 not R+5, KY-02 is R+16 (0+ / 0-)

                  Beshear won a nice majority of those votes when running for Governor in 2010.  

                  Actually, with us setting the agenda, there were several progressive bills where we got Republican crossover votes in 2008-2010.

                  We don't have to have NC-07, which doesn't mean there aren't Democrats who could win some deep red seats who would be quite useful to some aspects of a progressive agenda.  McIntyre voted for SCHIP expansion, for drug price controls, NO on fast-track, Yes on paid parental leave, Yes on Amtrak funding increases, Yes on tax incentives for energy efficiency and renewables, Yes for funding diversion and re-entry programs, etc.

                  Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                  by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:11:45 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  See 2006-2010 voting record (0+ / 0-)

                  People in R+5 seats voted for carbon controls, universal healthcare, higher minimum wages, the DREAM Act, student loan interest rate reduction, etc.  They didn't all vote for everything, but all of those passed the House.

                  Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                  by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 08:14:15 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  well today surely (0+ / 0-)

                  surely the "most progressive" candidate able to win NC-07 is... in the Republican primary

                  This is why M McIntyre is retiring in my opinion.

                  •  I'm pretty confident that person isn't running, (0+ / 0-)

                    actually.  McIntyre's retiring due to the personal risk.  There is a fair probability of the national climate improving, he could well win again, even with mid-term turnout but, he risks embarrassment and personal financial loss in diminished private sector opportunities.

                    There's a high value to the party of him running, but a low value with high downside to him personally.

                    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                    by benamery21 on Tue Jan 14, 2014 at 09:22:22 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  IMHO (0+ / 0-)

                    the "most progressive" person able to win NC-07 is, theoretically, Mike McIntyre, but , because he is not running, it really will be "someone in Republican primary".... The same with UT-04 and Jim Matheson...

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