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View Diary: When Jon Stewart & Diane Feinstein Both Blast the Israel Lobby, You Know the Game Is Changing (104 comments)

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  •  You have said this in other diaries (0+ / 0-)

    regarding regime change in Israel. What makes you think that will happen? According to polls over there Likud still leads by lot amongst the Israeli polity. There is nothing on the horizon that indicates any sort of leadership exchange, except for vague mumblings coming from the Right.

    •  My theory (0+ / 0-)

      is that the looming peace process will split and collapse the governing coalition.  The current coalition holds 68 seats, of 120

      If Netanyahu even signals any territorial concession,
      Naftali Bennet will leave.  He heads HaBayit HaYehudi a religious, nationalist pro-settler party.

      If Netanyahu fails to make progress on winding down the settlement project, Yair Lapid will pull out.  He heads Yesh Atid, with 19 seats.

      If either party pulls out, Netanyahu has to form a new government.

      Likud, Netanyahu's party has 20 seats, and Yisrael Beiteinu., with 11.  

      Tzipi Livni, of the Hatnuaparty (6 seats) is currently taking the lead in Peace negotiations, and she is well liked by DWS, DiFi, HRC, and US democrats.

      You are right, Netanyahu is a skilled coalition builder, he could conceivably re form a new government with a new coalition, or form a unity government to get through the transition, if they take the path to winding down the conflict within Kerry's framework, and also if he goes hard right rejectionist, as well.

      It is my impression, that Americans who care about Israel, support a two state resolution of the conflict with the Palestinians, and  are more sympathetic to the Lapid/Livni perspective than they are to the hard right, which enjoys support from the Republican Jewish Coalition., and are still pushing the Iran sanctions bill, which AIPAC is not, at least publicly.

      •  I agree with your impression of Americans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        whizdom

        but I think that has little to do with what happens in the Israeli Political System. Neither Lapid, Livni, or Herzog (Labor) has the / would have the votes to form any kind of new coalition. If new elections were called Netanyahu would win and he would take whoever would give him what he or Likud (because they are not always the same thing) would want.

        •  well, I don't disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Koopatroopa

          But a pillar of Israeli governance since 1967 is to maintain US gov't and popular support.  Those dynamics are changing, so their approach to achieving that objective might also change.
          DiFi and DWS can't uncritically condone settlement expansion to their electorates.
          Louis Gohmert can.   That's the split.

          •  This is true... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            whizdom

            The dynamic in Israel is changing but I don't see that changing in a way that we totally appreciate. Of course, the whole region is changing in a way that we don't or won't appreciate so I would use that as a qualifier.

            •  If Bibi were willing (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              whizdom, Koopatroopa

              to allow the negotiations to reach an agreement, he would lose Bateinu and Habayit Yehudi, but could probably count on Labor, Meretz and (with a little deal making) perpahps Shas  to prop up his government at least for purposes of seeing the deal go through.

              The problem (in my view) is that Bibi won't allow the negotiations to get that far down the road.

              •  negotiations (0+ / 0-)

                Not sure that Netanyahu can stop the negotiations train, short of creating some sort of national emergency, like invading a neighbor again.  
                Even Lieberman (Avigdor) sees it coming, either they cut a deal now, or a solution will be imposed.  
                He would jump.  

                •  Given his history (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Koopatroopa

                  I would fully expect Bibi to pull out all the stops to cause the negotiations to end in a train wreck.  I think he can find a way to derail it short of a national emergency. The other side is proceeding cautiously enough that it wouldn't take that much to blow the whole thing up.

                  And it is clear that, by and large, Bibi and the Likud are not viewing the choices as deal now or solution imposed later. They act as if the choices are deal now or stick your head back in the sand and fuggetaboutit.

                  Bibi won't truly commit to the negotiation train unless and until he is convinced it is in his own long term political interest to do so.

                  Of course, here's hoping I'm wrong.

                  •  Kerry is about to reveal (0+ / 0-)

                    the US sponsored 'framework" this month.  Bibi can reject it, accept it conditionally, or try to buy more time.
                    Rejection will make Israel more susceptible to BDS, or even diplomatic isolation.  BiBi will be blamed for this.

                    If he event hints at considering anything involving territorial concessions, his government will fall.

                     The Palestinians are going to the UNGA seeking statehood in Feb.  BiBi will be blamed for failing to prevent this.

                    •  I don't think (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Koopatroopa

                      Bibi is so concerned about international pressure; it's the domestic political dynamics that he has his eye on. If he believes that embracing the US framework causes him political problems at home, he'll keep his distance from it.

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