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View Diary: Maine inching closer to expanding Medicaid (32 comments)

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  •  If not this year, then next (7+ / 0-)

    LePage is a goner; Republicans see the writing on the wall.

    •  So far, not so good (2+ / 0-)
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      rktect, bloomin

      We certainly hope that you are right, but it won't happen just by hoping.  We have the same dynamic that put LePage in the Blaine House last time.  Cutler again is competing as the leading Independent, and this time Michaud leads the Democratic ticket.  I am sure there will be a few others in the field, just like last time.  

      Michaud is a far better campaigner that was Libby Mitchell.  However, if all he does is reverse the final standings with Cutler, that small victory will not mean much.  You know that whoever emerges the victor will have only the largest plurality.  LePage starts with some obvious advantages, the principal one being that his base is not split.  

      Maine voters will recognize the danger in all this, and those opposed to LePage will try to come together to assure a change.  We saw the same dynamic in the last Senatorial campaign, and it was the Independent who emerged victorious, by a large margin.  We've seen that break towards those independents before in gubernatorial contests - in fact, every time a situation like this develops.  

      While a Cutler victory would be far preferable to another LePage term, I have been very disappointed in Maine's experiences with Independent governors (Longley and King).  For Michaud to emerge with a different result, he needs to see his principal opponent not as LePage but Cutler.  He needs to define Cutler now.  In that definition, Cutler is not the guy who came in second to LePage last time (implied corollary, "and don't we all wish he had won instead"), but as the guy with no natural fundraising base and no natural governing base.  Therefore, he is the guy who is depending on a few wealthy, well connected supporters to put him over the top and stitch together a governing coalition.  Those Cutler supporters are, in short, the lobbyists and their special interests.  

      Help Maine voters understand that, and they will break towards the Democratic leader who came out of a Maine paper mill, not the Independent representing a few well connected lobbyists and power brokers.  How's Michaud's campaign doing when it comes to framing the campaign themes and defining his opponents?  So far, I'm not feeling it.

      •  I talked to Joan Welsh about this Tuesday (3+ / 0-)
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        Aunt Pat, salmo, bloomin

        The Dem Legislature will get the bill passed, if LePage tries a veto, an override is a good possibility.

        Cutler isn't getting all that much support, Michaud is doing well, Hugh reminds me Warren went blue on marriage equality and marijuana and claims the platform committee will be writing a progressive document. I still don't have anybody to run for rep from district 95 and I need somebody by March 17.

        I don't think the issue is really educating the voters, they know whats what, the problem is getting more volunteers to do the grunt work, the phone banking, canvassing, visibilities, I need people to make yard signs and buttons in Knox.

        Live Free or Die --- Investigate, Incarcerate

        by rktect on Sat Jan 18, 2014 at 06:42:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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