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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections House race ratings (2014) (32 comments)

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  •  I will not repeat in details (0+ / 0-)

    a calculations  i revealed in my previous post (the table was similar, but Owens seat was Lean D before his retirement), but even we assign (somewhat bold assumption, because they are only Lean D) FL-13 and CA-31 to Democrats, with more or less natural distribution of probabilities (tossup seat - 0.5, lean - 0.75, likely - 0.9) this list gives Republicans at least plus 4 seats. Most likely - between R+4 and R+5 . The main reason - much more Democratic tossup seats, then Republican, this alone gives Republicans 3,5 seats...

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