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View Diary: What if legislators didn't have to draw majority-minority districts? Democrats would lose big (71 comments)

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  •  As an interesting follow up I would like to see (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jyrki

    the same map with a Democratic gerrymander of the South.

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)! Follow on Twitter @dopper0189

    by dopper0189 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 02:59:11 PM PDT

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    •  Not just the south (0+ / 0-)

      but also OH, PA, VA, NC, WI, MI, NJ and NY.

      I bet if the Dems were to gerrymander these states to their liking they would pick up more than 20 seats to flip the House

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 03:11:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Far more than that even with the VRA requirement (6+ / 0-)

        going down the list you could easily get:
        OH +7
        PA +8
        VA +4-5
        NC +4-5
        WI +3-4
        MI +5
        NJ +4
        NY +3-4
        That comes out to 38-42 seats in just those states! In those 6 Deep South states Democrats could draw themselves 3 in Alabama, 8-9 in Georgia, 3 in Louisiana, 2 in Mississippi, 3 in South Carolina, and at least 19 in Texas. That would be a cumulative gain of 17-18 which is the house right there.

        I've previously drawn out all of the above except for Ohio and Michigan, but I know those two could easily be done.

      •  I agree... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dopper0189, Newt, GradyDem

        The entire premise of this article is based upon the GOP held legislatures were the ones doing the reapportionment the last time around.  This is not a valid reason to keep the status quo.  Yes, if the GOP controls enough states and controls reapportionment, they do get the US House.  However, if the Dems are in the driver's seat, we would certainly benefit.  

        Also, the result of this past reapportionment is that there are many far-right leaning districts.  Without majority minority districts, the individual  districts would have less of a partisan lean, and the legislators in many instances would have to be a little more cooperative.  

        I thoroughly enjoyed reading this entire in-depth analysis, and there sure was a lot of research put into it.  However, the conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans have died out because the new districts are mostly more in the extreme of one party or the other.  

        I know the advent of unlimited spending by outside groups has also taken over, but, district that were based upon regions, and not based upon the needs of individual legislator, for example in Maryland, the legislators would have to work harder to meet the needs of more diverse districts.  

        •  polarization of the parties goes way beyond (6+ / 0-)

          redistricting. Liberal Republican and conservative Democratic politicians are dying out partially because liberal Republican and conservative Democratic voters are becoming rarer as well.

          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

          by James Allen on Sun Mar 09, 2014 at 04:27:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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