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View Diary: No, the latest CBO report doesn't say Obamacare kills jobs (152 comments)

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  •  Hmmm...seems like a job CREATOR (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MisterOpus1

    So if 2 million people choose to withdraw from the labor market and we assume that the businesses involved still need those 2 million workers that sounds like creating 2 million jobs to me.  

    One of the biggest issues we are facing right now is those damn Baby Boomers wont retire and free up good high paying jobs at the top of organizations.  So if access to non-employee health care leads to people leaving the workforce that is a good thing.

    here is the other dirty little job making secret of ACA - its a boon to start-ups.  healthcare is a HUGE reason people are reluctant to quit their oppressive day jobs to strike out on their own (to be oppressed by their new boss - customers!).  Now we have taken the first step in delinking health and employers.

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 11:11:14 AM PST

    •  But that is not what the report says (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AlexDrew

      It says that employment will be lower than it would be, because some workers will choose to work less or retire.

      •  yes that is what it says (0+ / 0-)

        and you actually are confirming it--some people choose to work less or retire, which means more job openings and opportunities created due to those retirements or reduced hours.
        It doesn't say that the jobs are eliminated when people retire.  

        •  Yes it does (0+ / 0-)

          Here is what it says:

          CBO estimates that the ACA
          will reduce the total number of hours worked
          , on net,
          by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period
          from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will
          choose to supply less labor
          Read the report for yourself. It clearly says that in 2024, employment will be reduced by the equivalent of 2.5 million full time jobs. It talks about employment, not about the number of people who have jobs or are looking. Employment will be reduced.
          •  I believe you (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MPociask, FishOutofWater

            but that would seem to indicate we have an EXCESS of 2.5 million jobs.  Given our productivity is the highest in the world and company profits are at record levels it seems doubtful we can squeeze 2.5 million jobs out of the economy through productivity.  

            I get what it says but I dont believe in magic.  

            It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

            by ksuwildkat on Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 12:42:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not through productivity (0+ / 0-)

              It doesn't say we have an excess of 2.5 million jobs. It merely says that we will the equivalent of 2.5 million fewer jobs in 2040 than we would have had.  People will not take a third job, people will be able to retire earlier, parents will decide to stay home with the kids instead of being in the workforce.

              It's not obvious to me why this change isn't compensated for by lower unemployment rather than fewer jobs. But that's what the CBO is projecting.

              •  theory (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                amsterdam

                in theory employment always seeks equilibrium - when there is an excess of labor wages go down and it is cheaper to hire more people than invest in productivity.  When labor is short wages go up and it becomes cheaper to invest in productivity.  

                When there is excess labor it becomes less expensive to start new businesses and some of the excess labor decides to become self employed instead of seeking a job with someone else.

                The dot com boom was partially driven by low unemployment and rising wages in the 90's (productivity investment = cisco router sales).  Low unemployment was partially driven by the Bush (1) recession creating opportunities for unemployed workers to strike off on their own.

                So in theory is 2.5 million full time jobs are withdrawn we have to make that up with productivity or face a labor shortage.  The only other explanation is businesses are over employing by 2.5 million now and the withdrawn hours are excess.  that is harder to believe than a Paul Ryan marathon time.

                It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

                by ksuwildkat on Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 01:46:25 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  The CBO is spouting neoliberal nonsense (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kefauver

            There is no labor shortage in the U.S. CBO's predictions won't happen because they are based on false assumptions and wrong theories.

            We have a shortage of jobs now because there's weak demand because wages have stagnated. The ACA is not so stimulative that it will make labor supply the limiting factor in job creation. The CBO is promoting tooth fairy economics.

            look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

            by FishOutofWater on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 05:44:11 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You might be right (0+ / 0-)

              Thanks for cogently disagreeing with what the CBO says, instead of stupidly saying it says something it doesn't say.

              Is the CBO required to assume full employment in 2024, do you know?

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