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View Diary: No, the latest CBO report doesn't say Obamacare kills jobs (152 comments)

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  •  I believe you (2+ / 0-)
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    MPociask, FishOutofWater

    but that would seem to indicate we have an EXCESS of 2.5 million jobs.  Given our productivity is the highest in the world and company profits are at record levels it seems doubtful we can squeeze 2.5 million jobs out of the economy through productivity.  

    I get what it says but I dont believe in magic.  

    It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

    by ksuwildkat on Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 12:42:06 PM PST

    [ Parent ]

    •  Not through productivity (0+ / 0-)

      It doesn't say we have an excess of 2.5 million jobs. It merely says that we will the equivalent of 2.5 million fewer jobs in 2040 than we would have had.  People will not take a third job, people will be able to retire earlier, parents will decide to stay home with the kids instead of being in the workforce.

      It's not obvious to me why this change isn't compensated for by lower unemployment rather than fewer jobs. But that's what the CBO is projecting.

      •  theory (1+ / 0-)
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        amsterdam

        in theory employment always seeks equilibrium - when there is an excess of labor wages go down and it is cheaper to hire more people than invest in productivity.  When labor is short wages go up and it becomes cheaper to invest in productivity.  

        When there is excess labor it becomes less expensive to start new businesses and some of the excess labor decides to become self employed instead of seeking a job with someone else.

        The dot com boom was partially driven by low unemployment and rising wages in the 90's (productivity investment = cisco router sales).  Low unemployment was partially driven by the Bush (1) recession creating opportunities for unemployed workers to strike off on their own.

        So in theory is 2.5 million full time jobs are withdrawn we have to make that up with productivity or face a labor shortage.  The only other explanation is businesses are over employing by 2.5 million now and the withdrawn hours are excess.  that is harder to believe than a Paul Ryan marathon time.

        It is well that war is so terrible -- lest we should grow too fond of it. Robert E. Lee

        by ksuwildkat on Tue Feb 04, 2014 at 01:46:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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