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View Diary: If our voters turn out, we win (226 comments)

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  •  Specifically for Georgia... (13+ / 0-)

    I live in north GA, the reddest of the red portions of the state, I'm a county chair and I've ran (am running) for state house, so let me add a bit more perspective:

    1) Yes, core Democratic vote is the first concern. In my part of the state, that gets you to about the 25-30% range. Now, other parts of Georgia are much more Democratic friendly. But even there, expecting the Democratic vote to turn out THAT much is putting too many eggs in one basket. So, we need to go a bit further. For a state-wide campaign, that gets you up around 38-40% ballpark if you do a good bit of voter registration successfully.

    2) Independents. In the TRUE sense of that word, with 'independent' being a very narrow range of voters, given their typical turnout, a Democratic candidate can achieve about 2/3 of that vote if they're sensible and the Republican candidate is BS-crazy...which they usually are. That will add another 3% or so.

    3) Younger voters. Another demographic that trends are way, the trick is getting them out. Statewide, with a good push, a Democrat can add about 3-5% more to their total, putting them in the mid-40% range.

    4) Leaning Republicans. These are people who self-identify as conservatives but aren't diehard Republicans. You DO HAVE TO WIN some of these people over in Georgia to win the race. But, as you can see, its not a huge amount, and by targeting parent-aged voters, particularly female, it can be done.

    So, no, it's not just about the base vote, although that is the first concern. In a state like Georgia, it takes a multi-level approach.

    •  Thank you. You know your field work! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TrueBlueMajority

      I'm tired of Advice from Above, to the effect that we can disregard this group or that.

      Of course, you make sure the regulars are with you. And much of what you say to them will resonate with the disaffected, and maybe also with the ex-blasé who can be energized when they see how a vital interest of theirs (health care, everyone?) is being undercut by some zealot.

      As for the others, capitalize on descriptions of facts that show how Far Out the other guy is. What the ads say will be similar to all groups. It's the smart and diligent field work that produces necessary turnout in off-Presidential elections.

      Tom is describing field work in virtually EVERY state.

      2014 is HERE. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

      by TRPChicago on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 10:45:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Go Blue Georgia! (0+ / 0-)

      Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D.
      DEMAND CREATES JOBS!!!
      Drop by The Grieving Room on Monday nights to talk about grief.

      by TrueBlueMajority on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 11:24:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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