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View Diary: First gun show accident of 2014 continues avg. 1-per-month streak into 3rd year: GunFAIL LVII (150 comments)

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  •  Look at the charts (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Personally, I believe the data from the General Social Survey a bit more than Gallop because it's been tracked longer, shows a smoother function, and also includes individual ownership rates.

    The Gallop survey is far too 'noisy', indicating that it's error bars are likely much larger.

    Are we really to believe that between 1994 and 1996 more than 25% of gun-owning households gave them up? Or that 30 million more households had guns 6 months later? Unlikely.

    Furthermore, that 40% to 47% increase that you stated apparently uses data from the wrong year. 1994, the year from the survey, was at 54% household ownership according to Gallop.

    But your critiques regarding self-reported surveys are related to what I've been insisting all along. You simply can't trust them to report accurate numbers when it comes to things like gun violence because false positives and false negatives will blow your statistical uncertainties out of the water.

    That's why I insist that external validation be used to provide a consistency check for any of these surveys. This consistency check just happens to provide a range (~10-60k) that is compatible with the 108k number properly scaled to modern crime and gun ownership rates.

    That doesn't mean the final scaled number, ~36k, is completely accurate, it could easily be off by 50% in either direction. But it provides a good ballpark number that reasonably compares to non-survey based estimations.

    The reason that the household and individual ownership rates are declining as the NICS rates increases is pretty easy to explain. People who already owned guns bought more. Given the rhetoric around Obama's election, reelection, as well as the gun control talk surrounding the various mass shootings, this is an obvious result considering it was gun owners and NRA members that were panicking.

    We already have surveys that directly measure firearm ownership rates, and those charts are linked above, and I have no reason to believe that people were more likely to lie about ownership in 2012 compared to 1994, nor that illegal ownership is more likely in 2012 compared to 1994. In fact, considering the overall reduction in crime and gun related violence, it's likely that illegal gun ownership has significantly declined since 1994, which would further reduce the scaled DGU number. But that's difficult to quantify.

    Your personal experience may, or may not accurately reflect overall trends in Buffalo, NY. But just like climate change, local conditions aren't necessarily indicative of the global picture, especially when we already have measurements that contradict your anecdotal evidence.

    •  Thanks for honest conversation. (1+ / 0-)
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      Ozy

      How do we get "external validation" for self-reporting?

      I do understand the difference between "global" and "local', but the leaks are finally surfacing when it comes to the books being cooked for crime stats, not just here in Buffalo but more importantly in our large metro areas, like NYC.

      Retired Police: NY Crime Stats Manipulated, Fabricated

      a survey of more than one hundred retired NYPD higher-ups showed that cops—who are under constant pressure to produce happy-looking stats—have routinely fabricated or manipulated their data, since the crime analysis system was put into place in 1995.
      What's even more disturbing is that many Police Captains, etc from these larger areas are offered very lucrative jobs in other States...spreading their "business", so to speak, elsewhere.  Small municipalities having crime rates going up, will spend a small fortune to get someone "whom can bring results".  How much is truly intentional fabrication or "muscling"victims to remain silent, like I was or an actual drop in crime due to good "policing"?

      I know it would counter the RKBA stance that violence is going down while gun ownership is going up...but I seriously have no faith that we're being told the truth.

      Cutbacks force police to curtail calls for some crimes

      Chicago Police No Longer Respond To Lesser Crimes

      These developments must be brought into any analysis.  If we stop counting "lesser crimes" and are not reporting the ones that do happen, accurately...then where are we?

      No further ahead in anything.  

      -7.62; -5.95 The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane.~Tesla

      by gerrilea on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:08:37 PM PST

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