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View Diary: Georgia will be the next purple state (138 comments)

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  •  Although in medium term I worry about Midwest (6+ / 0-)

    For 2016 and probably 2020 the GOP's only hope for the Presidency is to go "All-In" on maximizing white votes. Problem is not every white voter is sympathetic with the Republican platform as is, and those most sympathetic are already locked up in the old South and Appalachia. They need new ground.

    Right now most of the country seems pretty fixed in terms of a standard Democrat-Republican Presidential contest: the Northeast and West Coast is blue, most of the deep South and the Mountain West is red. Unfortunately for the GOP (heh heh) two of the three swing regions of the country, the Southwest (NM, NV, CO, AZ) and the New South (VA, NC, FL) are trending if not safely blue.

    Where can the GOP find additional votes to get to 269? I would concentrate in the third swing area, the Midwest: MI, OH, WI, MN, IA, and possibly PA. States that have larger % of older white voters. I see no abatement of the trend towards political polarization in this country, and since 2008 I have been bracing for some form of counter-alignment reaction where more traditional white Democrat voters begin to feel alienated from the 'New Democratic Majority' that Obama and all future Democratic coalitions represent. Arguably this played a role in 2010, but to my pleasant surprise it didn't happen in 2012. I think it's still theoretically possible, however.

    Now if Clinton runs and the polls are gangbusters, chances are the GOP will content itself with nominating someone who gives enough red meat rhetoric to keep the base motivated so that they don't lose the House (if they retake the Senate in 2014 they'll almost certainly lose it in 2016). But if they really want to compete, I expect them to go (Mid)-West.

    •  GOP keeps trying and failing in PA like Bush (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      IM, Berkeley Fred, TofG, foresterbob

      really worked hard to get PA in 2004 and lost it both times. McCain also desperately wanted PA and could not get it.

      So not since Daddy Bush got PA in 88...has the state gone red...we even voted for Al Gore and John Kerry and the state was called early for both of those elections too.

      GOP will probably keep working on getting OH back however and then work on getting WI

      Keystone Liberals on Twitter @ KeystoneLibs , Join PA Liberals at

      by wishingwell on Wed Feb 12, 2014 at 02:20:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Spot on (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Be Skeptical, HeyMikey

      The right Republican could sweep the Midwest.  We're somewhat less socially liberal, somewhat fiscally conservative.  We don't like wackos but we'll listen to conservatives.  We like our social change in manageable doses and we're probably thinking we've done about enough of it for the time being.  We're not interested in immigration reform.  We aren't interventionists.  We hate elitists.  We like to be asked for our votes.  

      •  But that's a very tricky needle to thread (0+ / 0-)

        We all know exactly what the profile is: it's the media's Great (White) Moderate Republican Hope. Socially moderate (antiabortion is ok, but not obnoxiously so), fiscally conservative, Christian but not fundamentalist, stern anticommunist (pre 1990, now change to 'strong against terror'), pro-business but not a corporate lackey. Most of all, antiracist.

        Colin Powell would have been perfect, except for that minor UN-WMD-thing. Barring that, political dramas are filled with them: Alan Alda on The West Wing, Harry Hamlin from Favorite Son (forgive me, it was on one night and I had nothing better to watch, lol).

        •  If some spin doctor could repackage Paul Ryan (0+ / 0-)

          He might have a chance.  He did a pretty good job pretending to be moderate on the budget deal.  A Catholic could do well from PA through MN.   I thought Christie might do it till I found out how corrupt he is.  

      •  Not exactly sweep the Midwest. Ill. and Minn. are (0+ / 0-)

        pretty blue states.

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