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View Diary: Obamacare attacks failing. Health Insurance Marketplace exceeding expectations (70 comments)

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  •  Numbers are pumped up (0+ / 0-)

    The 3.3 million number is pumped up.  Early returns from the states indicate that non-payment rates range from a low of 15% in Rhode Island to almost 50% in Washington.   Meaning, the 3.3 million new "insureds" rate is probably inflated to the tune of 500k-1 million.

    •  Unlikely (unless you're watching Fox News) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Smoh, kefauver, Mokurai

      Take a look at brainwrap's careful numbers, and Paul Krugman's piece in today's NY Times on the campaign to "unskew" or deny numbers that don't fit the right-wing narrative of "failure failure failure." These numbers are real. (And the "non-payment" rates include people who just signed up and their payments aren't due until later in the month.)

    •  Might be early to put much stock in the non- (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Smoh, kefauver

      payment rates.  Given how screwed up the data integration is, I'll believe that many of the non-payment people are stuck in the system until maybe six months have elapsed.

      •  That is part of brainwrap's analysis eom (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Brainwrap, ybruti

        Back off, man. I'm a logician.—GOPBusters™

        by Mokurai on Thu Feb 13, 2014 at 09:13:32 PM PST

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        •  Saw it & skeptical (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ColoTim

          Saw Brainwrap's analysis, but he makes some very heavy duty assumptions that could skew things the Administration's way.  

          Not saying he's wrong, just not ready to accept his analysis.

          As for things going well, the best indicator to me seems to be how much the GOP/Obama are talking about the program.  As soon as things started to get rocky in the fall, the Administration started talking heavily about income inequality and the minimum wage.  They almost seem to avoid discussion of ACA unless forced into it now.  As for the Repubs, they can't talk about it enough.  

          Meanwhile, the President keeps pushing deadlines back for various sectors impacted by the law.  If things were good, I don't think we'd be seeing this dynamic.  Scientific? Hell, No.   Do I put more faith in these indicators than Paul Krugman? You bet.

          •  Glad you read my analysis, and not asking you (2+ / 0-)
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            ybruti, on the cusp

            ...to accept it at face value...but you actually agree with it.

            You said that you suspect between 500K - 1M "inflation" out of 3.3M.

            OK, that means you suspect it's between 15-30% haven't paid yet. I said that I suspect that it's about 25% (which is actually higher than the NY Times claim, FWIW).

            The more important question isn't WHETHER they've paid or not, it's WHY they haven't paid yet.

            I guess the thing I'm not understanding is what the actual "attack" is...are they saying that a huge percentage of ACA enrollees are deadbeat losers, or are they attacking the exchanges for paperwork issues?

            Both are worth looking into, but as Mokurai noted, it'll be a couple more months before this can be clearly stated.

    •  Actually, not so. (0+ / 0-)

      What is overlooked is that there are 3 million young adults who have been able to stay on their parents policy until age 26.  That is a big deal.  That 3 million should be counted; sometimes I see it in reports, but mostly it is left out.

    •  We need to "unskew" them, fast. (0+ / 0-)


      ODS results in Obama's amazing ability to humiliate his biggest critics, on the right and the left.

      by NoFortunateSon on Fri Feb 14, 2014 at 08:57:53 PM PST

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