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View Diary: Complete Analysis of the 2014 Senate Elections (134 comments)

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  •  No, not Massachussets (0+ / 0-)

    because MA is friendlier to Republicans than Vermont, and friendlier than Kansans to Democrats at the federal level.

    And yes, we will know without trying, because Kansas is not going to flip. I will literally bet you anything in the entire world that is mine to give.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:17:53 AM PST

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    •  You're really confident (0+ / 0-)

      I certainly don't think it's likely that KS-Sen will be won by the Democratic candidate. But aside from KY-Sen and GA-Sen, is there any other seat that you think is even possible for Democrats to flip? I think that KS-Sen is the only other one that's even remotely possible, unless a really great Democratic candidate runs in MS and the neo-Confederate racist wins the Republican primary and then says a bunch of sexist shit that deeply offends white women. Can you think of any other even remote possibilities? (And no, definitely not Maine unless Collins suddenly retires.)

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 10:46:52 AM PST

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      •  MS-Sen, yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, TofG

        I don't think it's as entirely impossible as we think it is. Sure, it's a polarized state, but as I've alluded in a couple other posts, all you need to get is something like 25%-30% of the white vote to be competitive statewide. Childers got somewhat near that in his district in 2010. (Gene Taylor, another white Demosaur, got far more than that. He only lost by five points in a 75% white district in 2010.)

        The only way MS-Sen becomes competitive is if we get these three things:

        1) Taylor or Childers to run.

        2) Cochran to lose the primary.

        3) Cochran to endorse the Democrat, either through an explicit endorsement or simply pulling a Lugar. I think this is far more likely (~50% chance, perhaps) than we would otherwise think.

        If we get these things going for us, MS isn't significantly less likely than GA to flip, in my opinion. (I'd rate it as lean/likely R, ~25% chance of flipping.)

        Aside from MS, the only other possible flip would've been SC against Tim Scott, but given that we'd need to run a dogwhistle campaign with a white Democrat in order to do so, I'm not sure I'd want to win (for ethical/moral reasons).

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:44:17 AM PST

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        •  I doubt it's possible to defeat Scott (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          He's done nothing to make himself unpopular, and I don't think there are enough South Carolinians who won't vote for a very conservative black Republican just because he's black.

          I also disagree that it's not much more difficult to flip MS than GA. Obama came within 5 points of winning GA in 2008. I do agree that a win in MS is just within the limits of possibility, and I don't think that Cochran would need to even tacitly endorse the Democrat; all that would have to happen is for Cochran to lose and the other guy to make some comment like "legitimate rape."

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:01:03 PM PST

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        •  Gene Taylor (0+ / 0-)

          Has left the party and became a Republican I'm pretty sure...Jim Hood is a Democrat and is MS's Attorney General, he's the only other Democrat besides Childers that could win it.

          18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

          by SCDem4 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:56 PM PST

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        •  Childers did better among whites because (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          his district in Northeastern MS had a lot of the areas where whites voted more Democratic than in the rest of the state. Look at places like Itawamba County, Prentiss County, Tishomingo County, places where in gubernatorial races Democrats performed respectably but even Ronnie Musgrove got creamed in 2008, though he'd swept much of the NE in 1999, but that are 80-90% or more white. Childers may indeed be able to get those folks to vote for him in a statewide race, but would he be able to match that performance with whites elsewhere in the state? Unlikely, outside of maybe the gulf coast where some Dems have been able to perform better than others.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:05:46 PM PST

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          •  Here's the thing (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, AdmiralNaismith

            We have two House districts, MS-01 and MS-04, which are ancestrally conservadem. These districts voted for Childers and Taylor, respectively. MS-03 hasn't voted for a Democrat since the 90s, so this may be the fount of McDaniel's power. He'll likely run up a large margin here among whites. But MS-04 is another story. It still gave Gene Taylor 47% of the vote in 2010, which is not an insignificant number given the climate at the time. Childers isn't Taylor, true, but it shows a propensity for voting Democrat that can't be ignored.

            With the whites from MS-01 and MS-04 being open to Democrats, even if just on the level of 30%, we can afford MS-03 to give us 20% of the white vote and still say we're getting ~27%. (Actually, given that MS-01 and MS-04 have a larger share of whites than MS-03, this could actually be higher.) That, again, is competitive in MS at large, presuming we can get good turnout among African Americans in the criminally under-canvassed MS-02.

            More thoughts on MS-02: It's MS's "VRA" district, ~63% black. Yet it's only D+10. In 2010, turnout was only 24% of the district's population - shameful at best, criminal at worst. With some money spent in MS-02 canvassing/registering the AA vote, that could give us a greater shot statewide.

            You know, the more I think about this, the more I see some serious underdeveloped potential in MS. Maybe not enough to get us 50%+1 outside of Democrat-favored political climates, but enough that we can compete here.

            I think I might do some serious analysis on this state and make a diary out of it. I'm intrigued to see how well my impressions hold up under more intense scrutiny.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 03:41:43 PM PST

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            •  MS-04 only voted Dem for Gene Taylor (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              I'm pretty sure it was the most Republican district in the state even when he was in office.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 04:00:14 PM PST

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              •  And before that--- (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, jncca

                ---it regularly elected Trent Lott, even while the rest of MS (four other districts at the time) was wall to wall Democrats.  The Gulf Coast, and not MS-03, is the most Republican part of the state.  

                In fact, it is possible to make a second (barely) majority black district by gerrymandering the living shit out of the state. Most of the geography if not the population, of the other district would be in 03.

                "It was all a mistake! I'm dieting and I told my staff to close the FRIDGE!" --attributed to Governor Christie

                by AdmiralNaismith on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 09:37:10 PM PST

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    •  I seem to recall (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Vermont hasn't elected a Democrat outside of Pat Leahy to US Senator in well over 150 years.  In fact prior to Leahy and Sanders the last candidate they elected to any party other than the Republicans was a Whig.

      To say MA is friendlier to Republicans than Vermont is to completely discount the history of the two states.

      Oh and last I checked, Kansas elected Dems much more recently than the 1850's to the US Senate.

      Never say never.  I don't think the Dems will flip it either but if Roberts gets tea bagged and Wolfe continues proving how extreme he is you just never know.  

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:36:49 AM PST

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      •  Tipped (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        But I think that Vermont's history of electing moderate Republicans as US Senators is pretty irrelevant. Vermont is a way different state than it was before they elected Leahy. Just how many other states are there where a declared socialist could win a Senate seat repeatedly?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:37 PM PST

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      •  The last Vermont Republican.. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, CF of Aus, GoUBears

        converted to Democrat, giving us control of the chamber after Shrub the Second's christening. That was a huge fuck-you to the Republican Party of the time. Jeffords also held the honor of:

        -Voting against the Reagan tax cuts
        -Voting against Iraq
        -Voting against partial birth abortion ban
        -Voting for DADT
        -Voting for the Clinton assault weapons ban
        -Voting against the Department of Homeland Security
        -Voting for federal affirmative action
        -Voting against Clarence Thomas

        In effect, he was very much in line with conservative Democratic values.

        Vermont also holds the honor of electing the only socialist to congress since before WWII, and the only socialist to the Senate as far as I'm aware. That Bernie doesn't identify as a Democrat is irrelevant. And don't forget Leahy, who's been in the Senate since 1974.

        Let me put it to you this way. Kansas became a state in 1861, thus, it has had 153x2=306 Senate-years. Of those 306 Senate-years, 18 of them have had Democrats. Of those 18, 2 were in the 19th century, 6 during the WWI era, and 8 when FDR was a fresh face in politics.

        And lastly, the state isn't trending our way, unlike WV for the Republicans or Vermont for us. History matters here, because nothing has changed in KS since it was founded. It has always been an ultra-Republican state. It likely always will be.

        I'm comfortable saying "never" because the odds are in my favor, and I know for a fact that I am right. There is absolutely no reason to waste time, money, or brain cells on Kansas. None whatsoever. Again, if we flip Kansas, I will dance naked in the street covered in whipped cream while singing "I'm an oscar meyer weiner". I'd bet anything, even if the only thing you were willing to bet was a peanut. I'm that certain. You should be too.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:06:57 PM PST

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        •  I really hope you dance naked (0+ / 0-)

          But I don't need to see it. hahaha

          Jeffords really was a mainstream and not a conservative Democrat after he switched parties.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:11:15 PM PST

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        •  correction (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          jeffords converted to indy, but caucused with the dems

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:12:01 PM PST

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        •  New England was GOP for many years (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Le Champignon

          Jeffords BTW was an Indy as you corrected below.  NH was also up until recently very solid red.  People forget that NH, VT and even ME were blood red for many years.  Maine had Muskie and Mitchell but for the most part until the Civil War they were by and large represented mostly by the GOP.

          I get your point and for the sake of many eyeballs I almost hope we lose Kansas to spare them the fate of someone dancing naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' but I'll never say never.   I think even Kansas has reached a point where the GOP are simply too extreme.   Sam Brownstain has a real chance of losing the GOV race in 2014.  Dems have elected Dem governors in the past and Dem representatives as well.  So to say it's impossible to elect a Dem in Kansas is an extreme stretch.  Nothing is impossible especially with the schism in the Kansas GOP.  It'll take the stars to align correctly for the Dems to pull off such a feat but who the hell thought we'd take Dick Lugar's seat in 2011?  I imagine there were quite a few people dancing when we did.  Hopefully they weren't naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' as well.

          This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

          by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:07:58 PM PST

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          •  Well the thing with.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Lugar's seat was that IN has always been open to moderate Dems like Evan Bayh. There was even a time where we held a majority of the US House seats in IN (2006-2010). Obama also won the state in 2008, even if he didn't in 2012. We would've been competitive there even without Mourdock being a twerp, although I'll freely admit it would've been safe R with Lugar.

            One does wonder if Kansas will start trending our way, but like WV for the R's, it'll most likely be incremental. A governorship here, a state house there, maybe a fairly strong showing (~45%) in a losing Senate race. There are also a couple House seats we could be competitive in, if we field good candidates for them. But not yet statewide at the federal level, I think.

            We'll see if I have to make good on my promise. I certainly won't make the same promise regarding the governorship there. All the polling indicates that we've got a very good shot at taking Brownback's governorship from him. After I do a Senate ratings map, I'll be sure to do one for the governorships as well, and I'm sure we'll have a healthy debate in both diaries!

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:40:31 PM PST

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          •  Kansas finally went full-on right-wing (0+ / 0-)

            in the last few years, to topple the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats in the State Legislature. So I don't see much evidence that the state is on a Democratic trend. But we do agree that the split in their Republican Party makes a Democratic Senatorial win possible - very unlikely, but still possible - if the Republican candidate is really egregious and the Democratic one is excellent.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:53:05 PM PST

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            •  outcome of National tea bagger revolt (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              However, after having been ousted, some moderate Republicans changed stripes.  It's not wholly inconceivable to see moderate GOP and Dems come together to oust tea baggers who have made a mockery of state governance.

              This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

              by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:28:01 PM PST

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