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View Diary: Complete Analysis of the 2014 Senate Elections (134 comments)

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  •  I seem to recall (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    that Vermont hasn't elected a Democrat outside of Pat Leahy to US Senator in well over 150 years.  In fact prior to Leahy and Sanders the last candidate they elected to any party other than the Republicans was a Whig.

    To say MA is friendlier to Republicans than Vermont is to completely discount the history of the two states.

    Oh and last I checked, Kansas elected Dems much more recently than the 1850's to the US Senate.

    Never say never.  I don't think the Dems will flip it either but if Roberts gets tea bagged and Wolfe continues proving how extreme he is you just never know.  

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 11:36:49 AM PST

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    •  Tipped (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      But I think that Vermont's history of electing moderate Republicans as US Senators is pretty irrelevant. Vermont is a way different state than it was before they elected Leahy. Just how many other states are there where a declared socialist could win a Senate seat repeatedly?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:02:37 PM PST

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    •  The last Vermont Republican.. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, CF of Aus, GoUBears

      converted to Democrat, giving us control of the chamber after Shrub the Second's christening. That was a huge fuck-you to the Republican Party of the time. Jeffords also held the honor of:

      -Voting against the Reagan tax cuts
      -Voting against Iraq
      -Voting against partial birth abortion ban
      -Voting for DADT
      -Voting for the Clinton assault weapons ban
      -Voting against the Department of Homeland Security
      -Voting for federal affirmative action
      -Voting against Clarence Thomas

      In effect, he was very much in line with conservative Democratic values.

      Vermont also holds the honor of electing the only socialist to congress since before WWII, and the only socialist to the Senate as far as I'm aware. That Bernie doesn't identify as a Democrat is irrelevant. And don't forget Leahy, who's been in the Senate since 1974.

      Let me put it to you this way. Kansas became a state in 1861, thus, it has had 153x2=306 Senate-years. Of those 306 Senate-years, 18 of them have had Democrats. Of those 18, 2 were in the 19th century, 6 during the WWI era, and 8 when FDR was a fresh face in politics.

      And lastly, the state isn't trending our way, unlike WV for the Republicans or Vermont for us. History matters here, because nothing has changed in KS since it was founded. It has always been an ultra-Republican state. It likely always will be.

      I'm comfortable saying "never" because the odds are in my favor, and I know for a fact that I am right. There is absolutely no reason to waste time, money, or brain cells on Kansas. None whatsoever. Again, if we flip Kansas, I will dance naked in the street covered in whipped cream while singing "I'm an oscar meyer weiner". I'd bet anything, even if the only thing you were willing to bet was a peanut. I'm that certain. You should be too.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:06:57 PM PST

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      •  I really hope you dance naked (0+ / 0-)

        But I don't need to see it. hahaha

        Jeffords really was a mainstream and not a conservative Democrat after he switched parties.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:11:15 PM PST

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      •  correction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        jeffords converted to indy, but caucused with the dems

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

        by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 12:12:01 PM PST

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      •  New England was GOP for many years (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Le Champignon

        Jeffords BTW was an Indy as you corrected below.  NH was also up until recently very solid red.  People forget that NH, VT and even ME were blood red for many years.  Maine had Muskie and Mitchell but for the most part until the Civil War they were by and large represented mostly by the GOP.

        I get your point and for the sake of many eyeballs I almost hope we lose Kansas to spare them the fate of someone dancing naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' but I'll never say never.   I think even Kansas has reached a point where the GOP are simply too extreme.   Sam Brownstain has a real chance of losing the GOV race in 2014.  Dems have elected Dem governors in the past and Dem representatives as well.  So to say it's impossible to elect a Dem in Kansas is an extreme stretch.  Nothing is impossible especially with the schism in the Kansas GOP.  It'll take the stars to align correctly for the Dems to pull off such a feat but who the hell thought we'd take Dick Lugar's seat in 2011?  I imagine there were quite a few people dancing when we did.  Hopefully they weren't naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' as well.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:07:58 PM PST

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        •  Well the thing with.. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Lugar's seat was that IN has always been open to moderate Dems like Evan Bayh. There was even a time where we held a majority of the US House seats in IN (2006-2010). Obama also won the state in 2008, even if he didn't in 2012. We would've been competitive there even without Mourdock being a twerp, although I'll freely admit it would've been safe R with Lugar.

          One does wonder if Kansas will start trending our way, but like WV for the R's, it'll most likely be incremental. A governorship here, a state house there, maybe a fairly strong showing (~45%) in a losing Senate race. There are also a couple House seats we could be competitive in, if we field good candidates for them. But not yet statewide at the federal level, I think.

          We'll see if I have to make good on my promise. I certainly won't make the same promise regarding the governorship there. All the polling indicates that we've got a very good shot at taking Brownback's governorship from him. After I do a Senate ratings map, I'll be sure to do one for the governorships as well, and I'm sure we'll have a healthy debate in both diaries!

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:40:31 PM PST

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        •  Kansas finally went full-on right-wing (0+ / 0-)

          in the last few years, to topple the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats in the State Legislature. So I don't see much evidence that the state is on a Democratic trend. But we do agree that the split in their Republican Party makes a Democratic Senatorial win possible - very unlikely, but still possible - if the Republican candidate is really egregious and the Democratic one is excellent.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:53:05 PM PST

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          •  outcome of National tea bagger revolt (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            However, after having been ousted, some moderate Republicans changed stripes.  It's not wholly inconceivable to see moderate GOP and Dems come together to oust tea baggers who have made a mockery of state governance.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:28:01 PM PST

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