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View Diary: Complete Analysis of the 2014 Senate Elections (134 comments)

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  •  New England was GOP for many years (1+ / 0-)
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    Le Champignon

    Jeffords BTW was an Indy as you corrected below.  NH was also up until recently very solid red.  People forget that NH, VT and even ME were blood red for many years.  Maine had Muskie and Mitchell but for the most part until the Civil War they were by and large represented mostly by the GOP.

    I get your point and for the sake of many eyeballs I almost hope we lose Kansas to spare them the fate of someone dancing naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' but I'll never say never.   I think even Kansas has reached a point where the GOP are simply too extreme.   Sam Brownstain has a real chance of losing the GOV race in 2014.  Dems have elected Dem governors in the past and Dem representatives as well.  So to say it's impossible to elect a Dem in Kansas is an extreme stretch.  Nothing is impossible especially with the schism in the Kansas GOP.  It'll take the stars to align correctly for the Dems to pull off such a feat but who the hell thought we'd take Dick Lugar's seat in 2011?  I imagine there were quite a few people dancing when we did.  Hopefully they weren't naked covered in whipped cream while singing 'I'm an Oscar Meyer Weiner' as well.

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:07:58 PM PST

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    •  Well the thing with.. (1+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY

      Lugar's seat was that IN has always been open to moderate Dems like Evan Bayh. There was even a time where we held a majority of the US House seats in IN (2006-2010). Obama also won the state in 2008, even if he didn't in 2012. We would've been competitive there even without Mourdock being a twerp, although I'll freely admit it would've been safe R with Lugar.

      One does wonder if Kansas will start trending our way, but like WV for the R's, it'll most likely be incremental. A governorship here, a state house there, maybe a fairly strong showing (~45%) in a losing Senate race. There are also a couple House seats we could be competitive in, if we field good candidates for them. But not yet statewide at the federal level, I think.

      We'll see if I have to make good on my promise. I certainly won't make the same promise regarding the governorship there. All the polling indicates that we've got a very good shot at taking Brownback's governorship from him. After I do a Senate ratings map, I'll be sure to do one for the governorships as well, and I'm sure we'll have a healthy debate in both diaries!

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 01:40:31 PM PST

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    •  Kansas finally went full-on right-wing (0+ / 0-)

      in the last few years, to topple the coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats in the State Legislature. So I don't see much evidence that the state is on a Democratic trend. But we do agree that the split in their Republican Party makes a Democratic Senatorial win possible - very unlikely, but still possible - if the Republican candidate is really egregious and the Democratic one is excellent.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 02:53:05 PM PST

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      •  outcome of National tea bagger revolt (1+ / 0-)
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        MichaelNY

        However, after having been ousted, some moderate Republicans changed stripes.  It's not wholly inconceivable to see moderate GOP and Dems come together to oust tea baggers who have made a mockery of state governance.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Sun Feb 23, 2014 at 05:28:01 PM PST

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